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While experts expect few changes in the way the war is conducted following Monday’s decision, The announcement comes at a critical moment for Netanyahu, under pressure from different Israeli political sectors to change the course of the current conflict.
While the most radical right pressures him to completely invade the Gazan city of Rafah, regain full control of the Strip and even start an open war with Lebanon after months of clashes with the Shiite group Hezbollah, The opposition demands that you reach an agreement as soon as possible that allows the return of the more than 100 hostages who remain in Gaza and to call early elections before the first anniversary of the Hamas attack.
In fact, anti-government activists – who have been joined by the families of the hostages in Gaza – called this Sunday for a week of protests, which they called ‘the week of disruption’, and they hope to gather at least a million people to press for an agreement with the Islamist group, in addition to the decline of the current government.
The reasons behind the dissolution of the war cabinet in Israel
The dissolution of the cabinet was more than expected news in Israel after the resignation a week ago of the former Minister of Defense and leader of the National Unity party, Benny Gatz.and his ally Gadi Eisenkot.
Gantz, a staunch opponent and political rival of Netanyahu, agreed to form an emergency government with the Israeli premier to create a “united front” after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The agreement also included the creation of a war cabinet of six members: three with voting options (Gantz, Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant) and three other members as observers.
Gantz accused Netanyahu of prioritizing his own political survival over the country’s security interests.
“Gantz, a key member of the cabinet for his experience and reputation in military and security affairs, resigned in protest over Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict, military campaigns and negotiations with Hamas and international actors on the situation in Gaza. Gantz accused Netanyahu of prioritizing his own political survival over the country’s security interests and had criticized his leadership style on several occasions,” Ulf Thoene, a professional in International Relations and professor at the University, told this newspaper. from La Savannah.
Hence, Israeli officials attributed the dissolution this Monday to the fact that, after Gantz’s departure, the support of the war cabinet is no longer necessary. “The cabinet was in the coalition agreement with MP Benny Gantz at his request. As soon as Gantz left, there is no longer a need for a cabinet,” Netanyahu told the group when announcing the dissolution, according to sources cited by The Jerusalem Post.
However, there is a second factor that drove the decision to dissolve this key body in the conflict: as soon as Gantz’s departure was announced, more radical allies such as the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, or the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, They asked for advice to join the cabinet and occupy the positions left by Unidad Nacional upon his departure. Both politicians have pressured Netanyahu to reject a ceasefire in Gaza, achieve complete victory against Hamas and regain control of the Gaza Strip.
What the United States wants is that this group of people who want to take the war far beyond the limits of Netanyahu himself do not join that cabinet.
“Now, with the departure of ministers from the previous conception, there is no excuse to exclude the main partners and ministers who warned in real time about the approach that is now recognized as wrong. As a government minister, the party leader and senior coalition partner, I demand to join this cabinet,” Ben Gvir wrote in a letter in X following Gantz’s resignation.
In that scenario, The Israeli media have read Netanyahu’s decision as a way to prevent the arrival of members of the most radical right. to the group that makes the key decisions of the war.
With that determination, says Manuel Camilo González, professor of International Relations at the Javeriana University, Netanyahu intends to avoid further confrontations with actors such as the United States, who have been calling for moderation for months and would see the rise of characters like Ben Gvir as a radicalization of the conflict.
“These groups have two fundamental pillars: that Israel invade southern Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah and increase Jewish settlements in the West Bank. What the United States, which is making mediation efforts to get Israel to reach stable agreements with Hamas and Arab countries, wants is for Indeed, this group of people who want to take the war far beyond the limits of Netanyahu himself do not join that cabinet.”points out the analyst.
An analysis outlined by cnn adds that The Israeli leader also does not want to be forced to reject the demands of the radical right in the war in Gaza, being a decision that would further enrage that Israeli sector, a key partner in its government coalition. While González adds that Netanyahu wants to avoid appearing closer to politicians with a profile that would not favor him in future elections.
“Netanyahu seeks in some way to disengage because, knowing that elections are coming – surely at some point it can happen –, he seeks to ensure that they are not an uncomfortable partner that will not allow him to retain power. Especially considering that one of the possible candidates is Benny Gantz, that is, a person who was in the war cabinet, but who gave him a position before the war,” explains González.
Other analyzes such as that of the British Guardian They have read the measure as a decision by Netanyahu to preserve the conflict in Gaza, but above all to reinforce his control over decision-making in the war against Hamas and Hezbollah.
The impacts that the dissolution of the cabinet will have on the war in Gaza and within Israel
Hereinafter, The most sensitive decisions about the conflict will return to the government’s usual security cabinet, except for those most sensitive topics, which according to The Times of Israel will be discussed in a small consultation forum ad hoc which will include the Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant; Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer; the head of the National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, and the ultra-Orthodox leader of the Shas party, Arieh Deri.
Netanyahu, by closing the doors to the right, has already drawn a line in front of what he conceives as an appropriate direction of the war
In that sense, Professor González considers that no operational changes can be expected in the conduct of the war in Gaza since the end of the six-member cabinet does not imply a change in the chain of command of the Israeli Army. The analyst also points out that Netanyahu has just drawn a key line on the way he intends to conduct the war and that no changes are expected in the strategy that the Israeli premier has in his head.
“Netanyahu, by closing the doors to the right, has already drawn a line in front of what he conceives as an appropriate direction of the war,” he points out.
The departure of Gantz and the end of the group that until now made the key decisions in the war Nor does it imply the immediate end of Netanyahu’s coalition government, although it is – according to González – a symptom of what could happen in the future.
“The prime minister has six parties around him, some larger than others and where National Unity (Gantz’s Party) is not present.” As long as he maintains a majority of these six parties in the parliamentary system that governs Israel, Netanyahu will remain in power. Now, if this crisis of the war cabinet expands to the political coalition in Parliament, it will be necessary to review to what extent Netanyahu is going to be forced to dissolve it and then call elections,” adds González.
Analyst Ulf Thoene goes further by pointing out that recent events do show a deeper crisis among the country’s political leaders and a lack of trust in Netanyahu as a person and as a leader to handle military operations in Gaza and ceasefire negotiations with Hamas.
Although a recent survey by the Israeli Channel 12 shows that 36 percent of voters would choose Netanyahu in the elections over Benny Gantz, whom 30 percent supported, other measurements such as N12 show that 50 percent of the Israeli right believes it is time to call early elections.
“Netanyahu’s decision to dissolve the war cabinet could increase pressure on him by reducing the participation of moderates in decisions about the conflict. This could intensify the protests in the streets that demand his departure from the government and the advancement of elections,” says the expert.
So things are, How much time Netanyahu has left remains to be seen. For now, thousands of people already gathered this Monday in front of the Israeli Parliament to call for early elections – 100,000 according to the projection of the organizers. This Wednesday, rallies are expected in the south of the country and on Thursday demonstrations are scheduled in front of Netanyahu’s residence and in places in Jerusalem and Caesarea.
ANGIE NATALY RUIZ HURTADO – International Editorial Staff – EL TIEMPO
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