If the next government restricts labor migration, the consequences could be major. Society will then age faster, causing working residents to see the costs of healthcare and state pension benefits for the elderly rise sharply. This is evident from a report that the Migration Advisory Council, an important government advisor, published this Monday.
Politics would then be faced with other painful choices. “For example, taxes have to go up,” says chairman Monique Kremer, “people have to continue working longer, or elderly care has to be significantly cut back.”
Conversely, more labor migration can actually help to reduce the costs of an aging population and alleviate personnel shortages. Although that is not certain: it depends greatly on who comes, for what work, and how long they stay.
Also read
Housing migrant workers is met with resistance almost everywhere in the Netherlands. Local residents do not want a 'Polish hotel' in the area
Whether politicians want more or less labor migration, active government policy is needed in all scenarios, according to the authors of the report. That is currently lacking, says Kremer, unlike in Germany, for example. “There, labor migration is part of the broader labor market policy and MBO skilled workers are actively recruited.”
Political choices are necessary to weigh the pros and cons of labor migration. For example, employers who bring cheap labor from abroad may feel less need to improve their wages or working conditions. The result: even less interest from Dutch employees, and an even greater dependence on migrant workers.
Shortages are becoming more acute
In the report, the advisory council addresses the question of whether additional labor migration is necessary, says Kremer; or it can contribute to solving social problems. A report on its desirability will follow in the spring.
And, is that necessary? That depends on the problem you are looking for a solution for. Employers who advocate more labor migration usually point to major staff shortages. Labor migration can indeed offer a solution to this, according to the advisory council.
These personnel shortages are only expected to become more acute until 2040. The number of people of working age in the Netherlands (from twenty years to retirement age) has only increased in recent centuries, but will then stagnate. Many older people are retiring, and far fewer young people are entering the labor market. The result: employers have to work even harder on the available staff.
The working population can still grow with additional labor migration, the advisory council writes. The expectation is that the net migration (immigrants minus emigrants) will be around 50,000 in the coming years. If another 25,000 labor migrants are added every year, there will be 425,000 more potential workers in 2040. By comparison: there are now more than 400,000 vacancies open in the Netherlands.
Competition for jobs
An important note: after 2040, the number of people of working age will grow again. If additional migrant workers are also brought to the Netherlands, this could cause a lot of competition for the same jobs. At least, if the migrant workers stay here, for example because they have started a family.
Kremer sees that such questions are rarely considered. “It is good to also look beyond the peak of aging. So that you don't do things that are unwise in the longer term.”
Another problem than staff shortages is the ratio between people of working age and older people. This will become further out of balance in the coming decades: the so-called 'grey pressure' will increase sharply. A smaller group of workers therefore has to pay for a larger group of elderly people with state pension benefits and higher healthcare costs.
Also read
The dismissed migrant worker ends up in the forest
That problem is much more difficult to solve, even with additional migrant workers. “But labor migration can moderate the effect,” says labor market expert Paul de Beer, who co-wrote the report.
And again it is essential whether migrants are here temporarily or permanently. De Beer: “If they retire here, they will also contribute to the aging population in the longer term.” As a result, the 'grey pressure' would actually be higher in 2070, instead of lower.
Quick solution
In some sectors, migrant workers may be particularly needed. The shortages in healthcare and education are so acute that their social consequences are major, the advisory council writes. “Not enough hands at the bedside, longer waiting times for treatments and therapies and a shortage of qualified teachers for the classroom.”
Because training additional skilled workers takes time, labor migration can be a quick solution. But the jobs must also remain attractive to domestic personnel, the advisory council writes. The risk of additional migrant workers is that employers feel less need to improve their employment conditions. And if Dutch people drop out as a result, employers will be forced to attract even more migrant workers.
Other sectors have already made themselves dependent on cheap labor, the advisory council notes. Greenhouse horticulture, distribution centers and slaughterhouses, for example. The question is whether such companies still have a future in the Netherlands, the advisory council believes, as they “are only profitable if they cannot offer full employment conditions and conditions.”
Separate class
It is a misconception that everyone benefits from labor migration, says De Beer. It may seem as if a migrant worker who delivers parcels only benefits from this, he says, because he or she would earn less in the country of origin. “But in fact we approve of hundreds of thousands of people working under employment conditions that we would not find acceptable for ourselves.” These people live in the Netherlands and form “a separate class to whom different standards apply.”
And if wage growth in some sectors remains limited due to the arrival of cheap labor migrants, this will mainly affect poorly educated people in the Netherlands. While the higher income groups in particular benefit from the cheap labor of migrant workers. “They use the services provided with it,” says De Beer. “People with low incomes simply do not have the money to often go to the catering industry, for example.”
Also read
What does NRC | think? The Netherlands needs migrant workers, but also more facilities
Reading list
#labor #migration #costs #aging #high #report