The Sun is the most important star for life on Earthbut it is also one source of potential dangers; every 11 years or so, the Sun reaches its peak activity – called solar maximum –during which it produces more sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass emissions.
These phenomena can generate solar stormsor of disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by the arrival of charged particles from the Sun.
Solar storms can have spectacular effects, such as polar auroras, but also harmful effects, such as interference with communications, satellites and power grids, and some of these are so intense that they are considered real natural disasterscapable of bringing modern society to its knees.
But how frequent are these solar superstorms? And how can we study them and prevent them? In this regard, two studies have emerged that suggest that we currently do not have the systems to study them adequately.
The most famous solar superstorm in history, known as Carrington eventwas named after Richard Carrington, an English amateur astronomer who,1 September 1859observed a powerful solar flare.
About 18 hours later –much faster than coronal mass ejections normally take to reach our planet– the Earth was hit by a violent geomagnetic stormwhich caused auroras visible as far away as the tropics, malfunctions of telegraph lines (over 160,000 kilometers) and fires in stations, not to mention that the people of New England were able to read in the dead of night without the help of other light sources.
It is estimated that the Carrington storm had an intensity of about 850 nanotesla (nT), a measure of the oscillation of the Earth’s magnetic field, despite this the Carrington storm was not the only solar superstorm in history.
By studying traces of carbon-14, a radioactive isotope produced by the interaction of solar particles with the atmosphere, scientists have discovered that in 774-775 AD an even stronger geomagnetic storm occurredwith an estimated intensity of 1,100 nT. This storm may have been caused by a rare burst of gamma rays, one of the most powerful forms of energy in the universe.
Another example of a solar superstorm is the one that occurred in February 1872known as Chapman-Silverman storm. This storm was observed by several astronomers, including the British Frederick Richard Malden Chapman and the American Charles Augustus Youngwho noticed huge solar prominences.
The geomagnetic storm that followed was comparable to that of Carringtonwith a’intensity of approximately 800 nTwith the auroras being visible around the world, and some witnesses reported hearing popping or rustling noises.
These three cases demonstrate that solar superstorms are not as rare events as one might think. According to a 2012 study, the probability of a solar storm having an intensity greater than 500 nT occurring in a decade is 12%, while the probability of a storm having an intensity greater than 800 nT occurring is 4%, which means that The world has seen at least three geomagnetic superstorms in the last two centuries, and they could happen again in the future.
The effects of solar storms today
If a solar superstorm hit Earth today, the consequences would be much more serious than in the pastbecause of ours dependence on electronic and digital technologies. A study from the NASA he estimated that a solar storm the size of Carrington could cause damages of over 2,000 billion dollars and leave without electricity more than 130 million people Furthermore, problems may arise such as:
- the loss of drinking water, food, drugs And fueldue to lack of refrigeration and transportation;
- the compromise of security systems, healthcare, emergency And defencedue to lack of communication and control;
- the destruction or damage of satellites, planes, ships And spacecraftdue to increased radiation and atmospheric resistance;
- loss of orientation and navigationdue to the lack of GPS and compass;
- La threat to human and animal healthdue to increased exposure to ultraviolet and cosmic rays.
To avoid or mitigate these effects, it is necessary to be able to predict and monitor solar stormsand protect critical infrastructures from possible electrical or magnetic disturbances, however the tools we have today are not sufficient to face this challenge.
To study solar storms, scientists use gods magnetometersor gods instruments that measure the intensity and direction of the Earth’s magnetic fieldand these tools are distributed in different regions of the world, but not evenly, what’s more many of them are obsolete or not adequately calibrated.
This means that measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field can be incomplete or inaccurate, and that solar storms can be underestimated or undetected. For example, recent research analyzed data collected from 32 solar stations. Scandinavian Magnetometer Array (SMA) during a strong solar storm in December 1977.
The researchers found that the storm had a very complex and variable structure, and that its characteristics depended on the geographical position of the stations. This implies that too sparse a magnetometer network may not be able to capture all aspects of a solar stormand to provide useful information for the protection of infrastructures.
For this reason, scientists ask to increase the number and quality of magnetometers, and to create a global and integrated network of detectors. This would allow us to have a more detailed and complete view of solar storms, and to provide local and timely warnings on their effects, thus, human activities and the safety of the planet could be better safeguarded.
Solar storms are natural phenomena that can have spectacular but also harmful effects on the Earth, some solar storms are so intense that they are considered real natural disasters, capable of bringing modern society to its knees, and these solar superstorms they are not as rare events as one might think, and could occur again in the future.
To avoid or mitigate their effects, it is necessary to be able to predict and monitor solar storms, and protect critical infrastructures from possible electrical or magnetic disturbances, despite this, as already mentioned, the tools we have today are not sufficient to face this challenge , and it is necessary to increase the number and quality of detectors, only in this way will we be able to face the threat of solar storms and guarantee the well-being of society and the planet.
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