In Qatar to close the games
The results achieved over the weekend in Kuala Lumpur – closed by Pecco Bagnaia with a total lead of 14 points in the standings over Jorge Martinnow the only obstacle remaining between the centaur from Chivasso and a historic second world championship – will allow the Italian from the official Ducati team to present himself next weekend in Lusail, Qatar, with thearithmetic possibility of closing games. However, the match point on Bagnaia’s racket appears more hypothetical than real. In fact, to win the title early, the #1 from Borgo Panigale would have to close the second stage of the end-of-season triptych with at least 37 points ahead on Martin.
This means that Bagnaia will have to go to Qatar earn at least 23 points on the Madrid native of the Prima-Pramac team between the Sprint race and the main event on Sunday. It is a combination that has only occurred once this year, on the first weekend of the season, in Portimao. Pecco won both races, while Martinator he was second in the mini-race on Saturday and fell in the long GP. In that case the reigning world champion earned 28 points over Martin in a single round. Conversely, there were two rounds in which Martin nibbled away 23 or more points from Bagnaia: in India recently and in the first part of the season in France.
Two victories may not be enough
But concretely what results does Bagnaia need to achieve between Saturday and Sunday so as not to bring the world challenge to Valencia? There aren’t many combinations. Even in the case of the best possible result for Bagnaia, that is two victories, Martin ‘would be enough’ not to drop below fifth place both in the Sprint and in the GP to stay in the game. With two successes for the Italian and two sixth places for the Spaniard, Bagnaia would collect just the 23 points needed to confirm himself as champion. The greater number of victories in the season would in fact also protect Pecco from a possible finish on equal points with his rival.
If Bagnaia doesn’t win either of the two races in Qatar, vice versa, the possibility of closing the game early would be almost nil. In fact, with two second places, the ‘captain’ of the official Ducati would only be world champion if Martin collected six or fewer points between Saturday and Sunday. Essentially the Iberian should finish both races outside the top-10. The last observation that he deserves to be highlighted is that, in any case, Bagnaia will not be able to win the title after the Lusail Sprint race. Even in the event of Martin’s success and withdrawal, Pecco would ‘only’ rise to +26, with 62 points still up for grabs.
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