Accumulated rate was 3.74% in the year and 5% in 12 months, above the target; gasoline pulled acceleration
Considered the preview of inflation, the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index 15) increased by 0.35% in September. It accelerated 0.07 percentage points compared to August. O IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released the result this Tuesday (September 26, 2023). Here’s the complete of the report (PDF – 298 kB).
The accumulated rate for the year is 3.74%. In 12 months, it went from 4.24% to 5% – a level above the inflation ceiling.
The Transport sector is the one that most impacted the inflation preview in September. Gasoline rose 5.18% and was the item with the biggest individual effect on the IPCA-15, with an increase of 0.25 percentage points.
The IBGE report shows that the inflation preview was the highest for September since 2021, when it rose 1.14%. When considering all months, the monthly rate reached the highest level since May this year (+0.51%).
The inflation target established by the CMN (National Monetary Council) is 3.25%, with a tolerance ceiling of 4.75%. In September, the preview of inflation accumulated over 12 months was again above this limit after 6 months. The last time the annualized rate was above this level was in March this year (+5.36%).
The financial market estimates inflation of 4.86% in 2023, according to projections from the Boletim Focus do central bank.
IPCA-15 SEPTEMBER
The IBGE said that 6 of the 9 groups surveyed recorded an increase in the IPCA-15 in September. The biggest change (2.02%) and the biggest impact (0.41 pp) came from Transport. The group was impacted by the 5.18% rise in gasoline, which raised the IPCA-15 by 0.25 percentage points. Diesel oil rose 17.93% and ethanol is expected to deflate – a price drop – of 1.41%. The Food and beverages group fell 0.77%.
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