The political soap opera in which Thailand had been immersed since the elections last May has been joined by a new actor, Thaksin Shinawatra. The prime minister deposed after a military coup in 2006 put an end to 15 years of voluntary exile on Tuesday, coinciding with the day in which Parliament has appointed a like-minded candidate, Srettha Thavisin, as head of government.
Shinawatra, the billionaire founder of Pheu Thai, the populist-style party that is now leading the formation of the government, has been immediately imprisoned upon arrival in Bangkok, under several sentences in absentia. Some academics quoted by local media consider that his return was part of a ploy to convince the Senate —made up mostly of military generals— to approve the candidacy of Srettha Thavisin, who was presenting himself at the head of a broad coalition of pro-democracy parties and of others favorable to the army. Last month, the upper house voted against the winner of the elections, Pita Limjaroenrat, from the reformist formation Avanzar, which has been left out of that alliance.
Thaksin Shinawatra, 74, had lived in self-imposed exile since 2008, in part to avoid facing charges of corruption and abuse of power related to his telecommunications businesses, which helped him amass his fortune. During these years, the tycoon, former owner of Manchester City, has lived in the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Dubai, and has avoided at all costs setting foot in his native Thailand for fear of not receiving fair treatment. He was tried in absentia and found guilty of three crimes related to his management of the country and his former company Shin Corp.
This Tuesday, his private jet landed at Bangkok’s Don Mueang International Airport around 09:00 local time (03:00 in the morning in mainland Spain), where hundreds of supporters were waiting for him. The former leader was quickly arrested and taken by the Supreme Court police to a prison in the capital, where he will spend eight years behind bars. The imminent return to power of the party associated with his family, however, could later translate into a reduced sentence.
Pheu Thai was the second most voted party in the May 14 elections. His pact with the winning formation, Avanzar, failed after the leader of that party, Pita Limjaroenrat, failed to obtain the support of the monarchist and military elites last July. On Tuesday, hours after Thaksin’s arrival, the Thai Parliament voted in favor of Srettha Thavisin to become the country’s 30th prime minister. The 60-year-old real estate businessman entered politics just a few months ago and will replace General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who has led the country since the 2014 coup.
The history between the Shinawatra family and the military is long and bitter. The military ousted Thaksin in a coup in 2006 and his sister, Yingluck, in 2014. So the return of the elder Shinawatra has sparked speculation of a behind-the-scenes alliance between the Pheu Thai and his former enemies, to allow him to return safely to the Southeast Asian nation. Ella Yingluck’s sister has been in exile in Dubai for six years and faces charges of negligence over a rice subsidy scheme during her years in command. On Monday she accompanied her brother to Singapore, from where he flew to Bangkok. “The day you have been waiting for so long has arrived. Good luck, brother ”, assures the message that accompanies a video that you have posted on your Instagram account. When Thaksin left Thailand in 2008, he said: “If I’m lucky enough, I’ll come back and die on Thai soil.”
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The result of Tuesday’s vote is the latest twist in a power struggle that goes back nearly two decades between the Pheu Thai, which has won five general elections, and a union between conservative elites, the military and wealthy families who They have long influenced national politics and the economy. “We are not lying to the people, but we have to be realistic,” Srettha said Monday, explaining that he had no choice but to ally himself with some rivals with whom he had earlier promised he would not collaborate.
The political neophyte has before him the difficult task of forming and holding together a coalition that appears to be very fragile, and that includes parties backed by the royalist military that previously overthrew two governments of his party. In a poll released Sunday by the National Institute for Development Management, 64 percent of respondents said they disagreed with the idea of Pheu Thai allying with military-backed formations.
Thanaporn Sriyankul, director of the Thai Institute for Policy and Political Analysis, told the newspaper bangkokpost that Thaksin has returned because he was certain that Pheu Thai could form a government and, according to this medium, everything indicates that he will become its leader de facto. This analyst believes that Thaksin will have to serve as a “political hostage” to assure the military parties (the United Nation of Thailand and Palang Pracharath) that Pheu Thai is willing to collaborate.
A key figure from his exile
Since his exile, Thaksin Shinawatra has been a key and divisive figure in Thai politics, supported by his supporters known as the “red shirts”, faced with the “yellow”, conservative elements addicted to the monarchy, as Agence France Presse points out. (AFP). Thaksin, accused of corruption by his detractors, repeatedly denounced what he considers a judicial maneuver aimed at removing him from power, to the benefit of military and monarchical elites. By including pro-army parties in its coalition, the Pheu Thai formation, the second most voted in the May elections, expects a gesture of power to benefit Thaksin Shinawatra, whose state of health requires medical surveillance due to heart problems and lungs.
Political scientist Aaron Connelly notes: “If the king doesn’t grant Thaksin a pardon by a certain time frame, Pheu Thai could start to ask questions about the coalition” formed to come to power. The request for royal pardon takes between one and two months, according to a person in charge of the Thai prison administration.
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