Editorial | The West must now turn its promises into actions

Editorial|Editorial

Lthe former leaders promised this week at the NATO Summit in Vilnius to continue and strengthen their support for Ukraine. US President Joe Biden, who flew from Vilnius to Helsinki, said on Thursday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who attacked Ukraine, has already lost the war he started.

Support and encouragement are needed, because the war in Ukraine is not over at all. Although Ukraine has been able to liberate its territories several times, Russia still occupies a significant part of the country. The war is also spreading to the rest of Ukraine, as Russia continues to terrorize civilians and destroy Ukrainian infrastructure far from the front line.

Changing the situation is also difficult for Ukraine, as the slowly progressing counterattack in the east and south has shown throughout the summer. Ukrainian troops have indeed advanced and liberated new areas from Russian occupation, but clearly slower than expected.

There are several reasons. The Russians have succeeded in digging defense lines in the areas they occupy, which are slow to break. By blowing up the Kahovka dam, Russia also cut off Ukraine’s possible routes of advance. In addition, there has been slowness in arms deliveries to the West, despite the big talk.

Above all, however, the disappointment is due to the expectations of Ukraine’s counterattack, which even grew unrealistic, even though the demands of the counterattack were known. The speeches of the Ukrainian leadership also had an effect on this, although they were at least partially intended to unnerve the Russian soldiers.

Uit is not worth drawing too far-reaching conclusions about the slowness of Kraina’s counterattack. After Russia’s big attack last year, the situation at the front has seen several rapid changes, and the initiative is now with Ukraine.

Ukrainian well-known military expert Oleh Ždanov said on Wednesday in an interview with Helsingin Sanomat three likely scenarios for the continuation of the Ukrainian counterattack.

In the first of them, Ukraine will be able to liberate the territories occupied by Russia, which may be possible with sufficient armament this year. In the second, Ukraine advances, but needs an operational break at some point and will continue its counterattack again next spring. In the third option, the counterattack does not progress much from the current one.

Ždanov’s scenarios are realistic, so to speak, and they do not take into account, for example, a surprising change of power in Russia. The first of them is desirable, the second is undesirable, because it would give Russia the opportunity to gather new troops, and the third is scary, because it would threaten to lead to at least a long-lasting war of attrition or a forced truce.

Uthe continuation of the Kraina counterattack now depends on the West. Promises of steadfast support for Ukraine require action. The mutterings heard in the West about the “ungratefulness” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the help already given should also be forgotten if at the same time it is acknowledged that Ukrainians fight – and die, get injured, fall and become vulnerable – for Western values ​​and Western freedom.

Biden said in Helsinki that he doesn’t think Putin can continue his war indefinitely, because Russia’s resources are not enough. Biden is right, but Putin doesn’t seem to want to continue indefinitely, but until war fatigue takes over the West and a sufficient number of Ukrainians.

An important deadline for Ukraine is the end of this year, when election campaigning in the United States begins properly. By then, Ukraine must get clear results on the front. This fact should be kept clear in the West as well.

The editorials are HS’s positions on a current topic. The articles are prepared by HS’s editorial department, and they reflect the magazine principle line.