Will Europe already have to deal with a new wave of corona infections “in the coming weeks to months”? warned about that the European health service ECDC this week, due to the emergence of two new sub-variants of omikron, BA.4 and BA.5.
The Dutch RIVM thinks that warning is premature: it cannot yet be determined with certainty when the Netherlands will have to deal with that wave, says virologist Dirk Eggink of the RIVM. “We only detect a few cases a week, and there is no real structural increase yet. That is similar to the situation we had when the delta variant emerged. There too we had a period of incidental sightings before it really started to rise.”
So why is ECDC warning all of Europe about a new wave?
Dirk Eggink: „They attach a higher infectiousness of 13 percent to BA.4/BA.5, compared to BA.2. That seems to be based on data from Portugal and has not yet been confirmed in other countries. We have a different group immunity in the Netherlands, due to the different waves we have experienced.”
How efficient are the vaccines against these new subvariants?
“There is very little information about this. The first signs are that they are slightly less sensitive to vaccine protection than BA.2. But it doesn’t seem like an earth-shattering difference.”
Is booster vaccination of the elderly and vulnerable again necessary?
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“That should definitely be considered. We are now missing the information from the test streets, but if you look at the picture based on sewage figures and hospital admissions, the current situation still seems to be heading in the right direction. But we are dealing with an immune system that gradually decreases, especially in the elderly. That is why I would consider giving the elderly and vulnerable the opportunity to be vaccinated again towards the autumn.”
Is there a chance that BA.5 will be ahead of us again and revaccination should actually be done sooner?
“Yes, there is a chance. But the weather is getting nicer, we live outside a lot and we still have a reasonably good immunity because many of us have recently been vaccinated or had to go through an infection That immunity slowly ebbs away, but it is not the case that it already evaporates within a month is.”
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A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of May 18, 2022
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