A federal government survey shows that the chances of disasters due to rain are high in 1,942 municipalities in the country; 142 of them are in RS
Around 3 in 4 Brazilians (73% of the population) live in municipalities most susceptible to experiencing an episode of flooding, floods, flash floods or landslides. These are the types of disasters related to extreme rain events, such as those that hit Rio Grande do Sul at the beginning of the month and caused the biggest environmental tragedy in Brazil’s history in terms of infrastructure and affected areas.
These municipalities, 1,942 in total, represent a third (34.9%) of Brazilian cities. The data is from a federal government surveyreleased in October 2023.
The study was produced under the coordination of the Civil House of the Presidency of the Republic to guide, among other actions, the choice of cities to receive resources from the new PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), one of the flags of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). The program has the “risk prevention” criterion, which includes the construction of slope containment, a macro-drainage system, flow regulation dams and flood control, among others.
This is not the first time that the federal government has developed a list of this type. A 1st version was made in 2012, during the 1st term of Dilma Rousseff (PT), within the scope of the 2nd edition of the PAC. At the time, 821 critical municipalities were identified to be prioritized. From the 1st survey to the 2nd, the number of cities most susceptible to cases of flooding, floods, flash floods or landslides more than doubled.
WHY DOES IT MATTER
In addition to Rio Grande do Sul, which is facing an unprecedented tragedy due to the rains, other regions of the country have a worrying history of flooding, floods, floods and landslides.
The most recent study detected 142 vulnerable municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. The number places the state as the 4th with the most municipalities listed, behind Minas Gerais (283), Santa Catarina (207) and São Paulo (172).
In terms of affected population, Rio Grande do Sul ranks 12th among 27 states, with 4.1% of its inhabitants living in areas at risk for disasters.
The percentage is calculated based on the number of people living in these locations in each city, but the data is available for only 825 of the 1,942 listed. As the estimate is made for new municipalities, the state proportions may be changed.
Regina Alvalá, director of Cemaden (National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts), a body linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation that helped prepare the survey, said that the methodology was built based on the combination of historical series of different indicators – such as disaster records and disaster-related deaths and displacements – covering the period from 1991 to 2022.
Therefore, it needs to be constantly updated, as climate change progressively increases the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as the rains that devastated the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
After the unprecedented tragedy still ongoing, the number of people living in at-risk municipalities in the state is likely to increase.
“Rio Grande do Sul was not so affected [por desastres associados a eventos extremos] As it turned out, the State’s numbers were not as bad as those of others”highlights. “There was a history of disasters, but not as alarming as now. And, in this decade, extreme events are actually more frequent and intense, which is why they end up causing more disasters.”
When governments do not prepare to face the effects of these events – by adapting their infrastructure, for example –, the vulnerability of their territories increases. According to Alvalá, this can be considered the case of Rio Grande do Sul: technical note from Cemaden itself demonstrates that, from 2016 to 2024, at least 5 studies indicated the State as a critical region for floods and flash floods when considering future scenarios of global warming.
Given the rapid transformation of weather patterns imposed by climate change, uninterrupted monitoring of the areas most exposed to disasters is necessary, he says. The State and its cities most affected by the tragedy will be closely studied from now on and may be included in an update to the list, according to the researcher.
Based on the list of 1,942 municipalities most susceptible to flooding, floods, flash floods and landslides, the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change is preparing a plan to prevent and combat extreme weather events.
The strategy began to be created by the department in February 2023, when rains destroyed the municipality of São Sebastião, on the north coast of São Paulo, and left a trail of 64 deaths. According to Minister Marina Silva, from then on the plan is being built together with other ministries. His promise is to soon take a proposal to President Lula for analysis.
The idea, as Marina Silva, is to enable continuous disaster prevention action in the most vulnerable cities, a kind of “climate ICU”, as has been said in interviews. This must involve a set of measures, such as the release of specific resources for this purpose to municipalities, technical assistance and new regulatory frameworks that allow, for example, the more agile release of funds without compromising inspection.
The plan should act as an accelerator for the development of adaptation plans for municipalities to climate change, reported Regina Alvalá, who has participated in the discussions. The agenda is constantly sidelined by other problems considered more urgent given budget limitations.
With information from Public Agency.
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