Few democratic politicians will repeat after Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, leader of the Russian revolution, that “trust is good, but control is better”. A famous statement attributed to him when a predecessor of the KGB was founded in 1921.
At least, they are not likely to say so when it comes to the relationship between citizens and government. After all, one of the lessons from the Allowance scandal would be that the government should trust citizens more instead of treating them a priori as potential fraudsters.
But what about the other way around, with citizens’ trust in government? The scientific magazine The Lancet reported this week that infection and death rates in the corona pandemic are significantly lower in countries with high citizens’ trust in government, institutions and each other, such as Denmark and Sweden. They have been more successful in controlling the virus, because citizens are following government measures and medical advice better. “Trust is a shared good,” say the researchers, which helps people “do collectively what each individual cannot do on their own.” Like bringing a virus to its knees.
In the Netherlands, such trust does not really seem like money in the swirling debate about corona. In talk shows, on Twitter and in ‘alternative media’ voters, journalists and virologically trained celebrities are more likely to question whether ‘we’ are critical enough of the government. The accusation that the state has made a mess of things or has even criminally sacrificed human lives for the economy can be heard in parliament.
Now you have to earn trust, of course – and two years of trial and error with flashing light measures about mouth masks, rapid tests, vaccination and a third lockdown will not really help. Many Dutch people are now eager to switch to the corona-free order of the day.
How different from the Danes seem. Trust has been key in that country since the start of the pandemic, said Danish political scientist (and government adviser) Michael Bang Petersen already in last year de Volkskrant. Or rather, vaccination was the key, but trust in the government’s approach is “the lock in which the key fits”.
Drastic decrease
Trust is not set in stone. In return for NRC political scientist Petersen said he is concerned about the long-lasting, debilitating effects of pandemic fatigue. According to him, these fit in with a longer trend in Western democracies: steadily declining public trust and the increase of ‘anti-systems thinking’. He fears corona fatigue will strengthen this trend, also in the longer term.
Recent figures on the Netherlands are also not very encouraging. Comparative European research in 2019 showed that the Dutch had a high level of trust in each other, in the rule of law and in political institutions. But in November a study by Erasmus University into the effects of Covid-19 signaled a drastic decline in trust in government (including RIVM and GGD), from “historically very high to very low”.
Also read: ‘You have to talk to every vaccine refuser’
Fortunately, the ‘mutual solidarity’ with family and friends remained as high as ever.
Non-corona factors can of course play a role in this sharp decline, the researchers acknowledge: the excruciatingly slow cabinet formation, the oil slick of the Allowance scandal and the messy retreat from Afghanistan. Also: social media, a blazing fire of conspiracy theorists, where anyone can warm themselves who wants to blame Bill Gates for corona – or something else. The report nevertheless drew a hard conclusion: the Netherlands was beginning to show signs of a low-trust society.
You can draw even longer lines. All kinds of thinkers see a ‘great rift’ in modern Western societies. Rampant capitalism and new technologies would have ripped the social fabric to shreds. Leftists then denounce capitalism – in which, according to the Communist Manifesto “everything established evaporates, everything sacred is profaned” (that manifesto, too, has recently appeared, not coincidentally, in a new edition).
Right-wing cultural pessimists emphasize the uprooting effects of liberalism and egalitarianism, and of course “mass immigration” and multiculturalism. In their view, the national or popular sense of community has been sacrificed on the barricades of May 1968 (and in the boardrooms of the World Economic Forum). In conspiracy corners, that has been magnified into a Grand Reboot that would roll out the international elite over fearful, Covid-19-decimated populations, en route to a manipulated future.
normal language
With both feet on earth. Is it really that bad? The Rotterdam report was criticized by political scientists who emphasized that the declining confidence only applies to one area, namely politics, and can also be cyclical. A ‘temporary dip’ that should not be confused with ‘structural erosion’, wrote Tom van der Meer and Josje den Ridder in NRC.
When asked, Van der Meer agrees that trust in the government is of great importance. But he does point out that in a democratic country such a thing means something very different than in authoritarian states – what it is… Lancetcan skew research. “In China it is extremely high, more than 90 percent. In democratic societies you can already be half of it.”
And trust can bounce back, says sociologist Godfried Engbersen, who led the research at EUR. The title The low-trust society mainly referred to ‘the sentiment of the moment’. The Netherlands still scores highly internationally. The fact remains: the decline in trust in government is spectacular.
According to Engbersen, Corona has acted as a social “contrast fluid” that has brought social issues to the fore, such as inequality of opportunity. He sees declining confidence mainly in two groups: low-income and highly educated people. “The first group was hit hardest by Covid and already had less confidence in the government. Highly educated people have become more critical of policy.”
How can a government regain trust? Not by hammering at it. Engbersen: „You cannot win trust with a trust policy. It is the effect of measures that give people more control over their lives and offer prospects. You can’t just do that.” Above all, he hopes for the ‘re-evaluation of community work’, social work that emerged in the 1970s but has since been demolished. “You sometimes see youth workers doing good work. Abstract government information does not penetrate those districts, you have to be able to speak normal language.”
Another obstacle remains: polarization in politics itself, with parties rejecting the ‘official story’ as a lie. They will attach little value to the research of The Lancet. That was partly paid for by the Bill Gates foundation.
Trust with the Danes page 5
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad on 5 February 2022
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 5, 2022
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