In just ten days of holding the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been able to trigger a mini-crisis in the regional bloc due to its unannounced trips to Russia and China, where he held meetings with Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, respectively.
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Just the day after assuming the presidency of the council for the second half of the year, Orbán arrived in Ukraine unexpectedly to meet with the president. Volodymyr Zelensky and propose that he consider the possibility of agreeing to a ceasefire. This was the first official visit by the Hungarian Prime Minister to kyiv since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022.
Three days later, the controversial leader surprised again, this time heading to Moscow to meet with Vladimir PutinAs if that were not enough, on Sunday the 7th the right-wing ruler’s plane landed in Beijing for a new meeting, this time with Xi Jinping.
Orbán called this tour “Peace Mission 3.0.”
Viktor Orban and Xi Jinping during a meeting in Beijing.
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Since passing through Russian territory, different European authorities began to warn that Orbán was not making these trips on behalf of the bloc, nor did he have the capacity to negotiate any agreement between the countries in conflict. The warning was important, especially since a month ago Putin presented a “peace plan” considered unacceptable by Brussels.
“The rotating EU presidency has no mandate to engage in dialogue with Russia on behalf of the EU. The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussion on Ukraine can take place without Ukraine,” European Council President Charles Michel wrote on his X social media account.
The EU rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU.
The European Council is clear: Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine.
— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) July 4, 2024
Viktor Orbán, a born provocateur
This Thursday 11, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security, Josep Borrell, Borrell was in line with Michel and said that “there is deep unease in the European Union over the behaviour” of the Hungarian leader. Borrell spoke to the media from Washington, where he participated in the NATO summit, an event in which other leaders also expressed criticism of Orbán.
Almost at the same time, the ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven met in Brussels to reprimand the Hungarian leader for more than two hours. The only delegation that did not speak was Slovakia, whose government is the only one that remains very close to Budapest.
But how can we understand Orbán’s attitude?
“Orbán has been a free-wheeling figure for years, he doesn’t have many diplomatic considerations. These trips are in line with that, that of a character in whom his independence prevails. He loves to provoke Brussels, the European Union, he loves to demonstrate his autonomy,” internationalist Enrique Banús told El Comercio.
“But Orbán’s motives are not only external, but also have to do with domestic politics. A dissident from his party, Peter Magyar, created his own movement and won almost 30% of the votes in the last European elections. He mainly gathered votes from those who are dissatisfied with Orbán, not ideologically because they follow a very similar line, but because of the corruption that has taken hold in the government. These trips could be intended to present themselves in their own country as a world leader who is welcomed everywhere.”adds the expert.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban smiles as he attends a reception on June 19, 2024 at the New Castle in Stuttgart, southwest Germany.
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Asked in the last few hours about Orbán’s situation, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz He repeated what he had been warning during the Hungarian leader’s last trips: “Mr. Orbán is doing this as Hungarian Prime Minister and not as a representative of the EU Council.”
In foreign policy there is no common opinion, but there is a majority opinion, a dominant one, or an approach that is more shared than others. This is not written anywhere, but European diplomats and officials respect it. It is the culture that has been nurtured and Orbán has been determined to shatter it.
In this sense, is it possible to separate the figure of the prime minister from that of the temporary president of the European Council? For Banús, this difference is an unwritten rule within European diplomacy.
“What usually happens is that during the six-month presidency, national interests take second place to the representation of the interests of the European Union and common opinion. In foreign policy, there is no common opinion, but there is a majority opinion, a dominant one, or an approach that is more shared than others. This is not written anywhere, but it is respected by European diplomats and officials. It is the culture that has been nurtured and Orbán has been determined to shatter it,” he says.
The enemy at home? The relationship between Orbán and Putin
Orbán has never hidden his closeness and sympathy with Putin and, in fact, seems to take pride in his ability to engage in dialogue with both sides of the conflict. However, concerns have multiplied throughout Europe among those who believe that Hungarian authority could represent the gateway for the Russian leader’s influence in the bloc.
Banús admits that Moscow may be trying to gain influence in the EU, but considers it impossible for it to achieve this through Orbán. “It can try, but it is impossible for it to succeed. Orbán’s prestige is at rock bottom, he has no chance of anything. He may agree more or less with his Slovak colleague, but with no one else, not even the Poles who at one time showed a certain closeness, with the current Polish government there is nothing to be done,” she explains.
It is worth remembering at this point that Orbán currently leads the most influential right-wing group in the European Parliament, after announcing on Monday 8 the creation of Patriots for Europe, in alliance with the French Marine Le Pen and the Italian Matteo Salvini, among others.
However, the analyst says that even this alliance does not give it enough strength to influence the majority view within the bloc.
Viktor Orbán and Martine Le Pen
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A separate issue, Banús believes, is the case of China, whose influence is causing increasing concern in the EU. “It is very worrying because they have a clear strategy of positioning themselves. A few days ago I was looking at a map of the ports worldwide that are managed by Chinese companies. They have been gaining strategic positions everywhere, even in the Mediterranean, managing the port of Piraeus, in Athens, very close to the entrance to the Black Sea,” he explains.
This coincides precisely with the final statement issued by NATO on Thursday 11, in which it describes China as a “decisive facilitator” of Russia’s war against Ukraine. According to the joint statement by the 32 members, Beijing and Moscow’s “unrestricted partnership” “increases the threat that Russia poses to its neighbours and to Euro-Atlantic security.”
Renzo Giner Vasquez
The Trade (Peru) / GDA
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