French voters are voting on Sunday in the second round of legislative elections to finalise the National Assembly. Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, National Rally (RN), which won the most votes in the first round, is once again the favourite to win the most seats. But how likely is it to win a majority?
Below we analyze three scenarios, using the results of the first round and the latest polls.
What is decided on Sunday
In the first round, 77 of the 577 members of the Assembly were elected – those who passed the 50% of the total votes and the 25% of the registered voters. The remaining districts will be resolved with a new vote this Sunday.
According to the electoral system, the two candidates who received the most votes from the first round and those who exceeded the threshold of 12.5% of the electorate will be in the second round, which has already eliminated many candidates. In addition, there have been withdrawals: dozens of candidates from the left of the New Popular Front (NFP) and from Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition (Ensemble) have withdrawn. They have done so when they were competing with the far right and were third, to encourage their voters to deploy a belt which brings together the vote against Le Pen in a single alternative.
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The chart summarises the competitions in the 577 districts, showing those decided and those pending:
Next, to calculate how the Parliament could turn out, we will solve each pending district under different assumptions. The first two scenarios are theoretical, extreme and unlikely cases, but useful as a reference. The third is our central or most likely scenario.
Theoretical scenario: no coordination
The first hypothesis is to assume that the second round of voting will be exactly the same as the first. Voters for qualified candidates will repeat, and those who voted for an eliminated candidate will stay at home. In this scenario, the far-right National Rally could achieve a majority, around 294 seats, 5 more than the 289 required.
However, this scenario is unrealistic. Some voters of eliminated or withdrawn candidates will surely now decide to choose their second or least bad option. This calculation is useful to understand that, for the extreme right to achieve a majority, there needs to be little coordination against it.
Another theoretical scenario: the great ‘cordon sanitaire’
The other extreme case is to assume that there is a large coordination against the National Rally. Specifically, that in each constituency the Ensemble voters in the first round all vote for the New Popular Front when their candidate is not an option; and vice versa, that all the NFP voters vote for Ensemble against the far right when the left candidate is not in the second round.
Under these assumptions, the National Rally would fall far short of an absolute majority, with just 145 seats; the left would have around 223 seats, while Macron would have 146.
But again, this scenario is also unrealistic. First, because not all voters of the New Popular Front and Ensemble will follow the lead of their parties. And second, because the National Rally will also gain voters from other parties that are not in the second round. How can we predict these flows? The solution is to look at the polls, which brings us to our central scenario.
Central scenario: with voters moving as polls suggest
Polls these days allow us to estimate how those who voted for each party in the first round will act in the second round. For example, according to the pollster Cluster17, in a duel between the NFP and the RN, 30% of Ensemble voters would vote for the former and only 12% for the latter (the rest do not know or will abstain). Similarly, in a duel between Ensemble and RN, 42% of NFP voters would form this cordon sanitaire.
Thanks to this data we can make a better prediction. We go constituency by constituency, moving the votes from the first round to the second according to 1) which candidates are running, and 2) what the flow of voters will be like whose first choice no longer exists. The following graph shows the final result under these assumptions:
In this central scenario, the Assembly would be fragmented. The National Rally would be the leading force with around 200 deputies, but they do not seem to be close to an absolute majority. They are followed by the New Popular Front, with around 180, and Ensemble, with around 130; the Republicans, together with other right-wing formations, would have around 50 seats. The other candidates share another twenty.
With this result, two scenarios would open up. One is a blockage. The possible coalitions to reach the majority of 289 seats, or come close to it, do not add up, or their parties are unable to reach an agreement. The second scenario is that of a grand coalition. In the last days of the campaign, the centre aligned with Macron and the moderate left (the part of the New Popular Front that excludes its most radical sector, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon) have publicly considered the idea of an alliance to govern, which could also include the moderate right. It will not be easy. First, they would have to give them the numbers. And second, they would have to overcome the programmatic differences and the absence in France of the Fifth Republic, the current constitutional system based on a strong presidential power, of a coalition culture. The alternative is a parliamentary blockage, without majorities capable of appointing a prime minister. And an additional problem arises: the Constitution does not allow new legislative elections until a year from now.
Of course, this central scenario remains an approximation. For example, in the polls there were many people who answered “I don’t know” when asked about their second choice in hypothetical duels or triangulars. These undecideds are not very predictable. Coordination against the National Rally could be greater, but we could also be surprised by a greater pull of votes towards Le Pen.
Our projection, however, is essentially in line with those published in recent days by the best French pollsters. According to Harris, the National Rally will have between 190 and 220 seats; IFOP gives them 210-240, and Elabe, between 200 and 230. The pollsters agree in pointing to a fragmented lower house as the probable result, with no majority for the far right, although they remain cautious. With any of the results, from an absolute majority for the RN to a blocked Chamber or a grand alternative coalition to the far right, France will find itself from Sunday evening in a situation unprecedented in the Fifth Republic.
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