Mexico.- In recent days, various meteorological experts have warned that the “El Niño” phenomenon it could be registering in the next few weeks and it would be extended more than normal.
As you may have already noticed, despite the fact that just a few days ago we welcomed spring in Mexico, the rains have been present in several states of the Mexican Republic.
Under this framework, it has been predicted that the rainfall could be prolonged during the remaining 9 months of the current year, due to the arrival of the phenomenon known as “El Niño”, but what is it?
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What is the “El Niño” phenomenon?
According to “National Geographic” magazine, during the El Niño period the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean warms more than normal, especially at the equator and along the coasts of South and Central America. It is in this way that warm oceans give rise to low pressure systems in the atmosphere, which causes a lot of rain on the western coasts of America.. It is, in a few words, the warm and humid half of the natural meteorological cycle called “El Niño Phenomenon” (FEN), whose other part is “La Niña”.
How will El Niño affect this 2023?
Thus, in line with other international systems, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua), the rainy season will be recording the remainder of this 2023.
In this sense, the Climate Prediction Center pointed out that there is up to a 62% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will develop during the period from May to July of this year..
Likewise, the most recent IRI forecasts favor the transition to “El Niño” starting June-August 2023 and lasting until the winter months.
On the other hand, according to the World Centers for the Production of Long-Term Forecasts of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 90% probability that the prevailing conditions will evolve towards a neutral context in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENOS) over the course of period from March to May of this year. Also, there is only a 10% chance that the La Niña phenomenon will continue.
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