The Barbados agreements have made possible the removal of energy sanctions against Venezuela, and this has meant that Caracas will hold talks with half a dozen multinationals with the aim of restoring its oil production, in a context in which global supply , and the American one in particular, could be in need of Venezuelan crude to stabilize itself.
The concessions offered by the United States expected, in return, a commitment from the Government of Nicolás Maduro to the organization of free and verifiable presidential elections, without vetoes to candidates to participate, and within a framework of amnesty for the more than 300 political prisoners who there are in the country, about which there is no response in Caracas.
The president of Petroleros de Venezuela, Pedro Tellechea, has welcomed international capital. In addition to Repsol and Eni, which have been working with Venezuela on gas projects for some time, the French company Maurel and Prom has announced that it is resuming its operations in Lake Maracaibo. China Petroleum and Indian Oil are already carrying out work with Miraflores. There are talks with Trinidad about the joint exploitation of the Dragon campus, run by Shell. Mitsubishi wants to resume the Methanol de Oriente petrochemical project, Metor. Caracas has confirmed joint oil and gas projects with the Colombian Ecopetrol. There is also talk of Petrobras and the Indian Reliance. PDVSA has enormous debts with some of these companies.
Just as or more importantly, international contractors Halliburton, Baker and Hughes and Schlumberger also return to Venezuelan fields. Some private Venezuelan companies, such as Suelopetrol, have expressed their willingness to invest in wells and presented proposals to the Executive to increase the production of light crude oil.
The end of sanctions and normalization of direct contracting, agreed with the United States, allows the Venezuelan treasury to sell its crude oil without the enormous discount, sometimes up to 40 percent, that it previously had to make in those complex transactions in the Indian Ocean in high seas, a circumstance that led to a loss of assets, and which was later aggravated by the corruption of its senior officers linked to the president of Petróleos de Venezuela himself, Tarek El Assami, the famous PDVSA-Crypto case.
Far from its historical averages, calculated at 3,000,000 barrels per day, Venezuela, with the help of the special license to Chevron, is currently laboriously producing 800,000. Experts consulted estimate that, if all this movement is completed, crude oil production could increase by about 300,000 barrels per day in 2024, finally reaching 1,200,000 barrels per day, with expectations to continue growing.
Newsletter
The analysis of current events and the best stories from Colombia, every week in your mailbox
RECEIVE THE
State income would be recovered with enormous clarity by directing sales towards the United States, without discounts, in a scenario of high oil prices. Venezuela would have a real opportunity to expand its economy after the historic crash of 2018 and the poor performance of 2023.
This entire movement, which demands expensive investments, is done knowing that the differences between Caracas and Washington persist, and that there is a particularly critical bottleneck between them: the total reluctance of Chavismo to accept that the opposition María Corina Machado, who tops all opinion polls, may compete in next year’s presidential elections.
Juan González, special advisor for the region of the United States Department of State, has declared that Venezuela is not complying with its commitments, denouncing that more political prisoners have not been released and that unconstitutional vetoes persist on opposition political leaders, compromising the outlook for free elections. González added that Venezuela had an “ultimatum,” and that the United States Government will wait until November 30 for any gesture from Nicolas Maduro. Otherwise, the United States will resume its sanctions policy.
Jorge Rodríguez, head of the Chavista delegation in Barbados, has responded that Venezuela “does not accept any ultimatum from anyone” and accused the Venezuelan opposition and the United States of being the ones who have not complied with what was signed. Although there is discretion on the subject, the feeling is growing among certain sources that these investments are made knowingly of this circumstance, and even independently of it.
Luis Oliveros, an economist specialized in international trade and Petroleum, an academic at the Metropolitan University, does not believe in a return of sanctions, despite what González stated. “You have to read the ultimatum well. What they propose is that there must be signs, a roadmap, not an immediate solution. I don’t think the immediate return of sanctions is on the cards. These companies are agreeing to invest a lot of money with the Venezuelan state. A much more neuralgic date may be April, once the license deadlines have expired,” he says.
Venezuela would still be in a position to offer some political gesture to the United States. “Russia has had an important approach to Venezuela in all areas in those years, including oil. The demands of the war in Ukraine prevent them from working with their allies,” comments economist, analyst and academic Víctor Álvarez, who is convinced that Washington wants to get closer to Caracas. “The United States toughens sanctions on Russia, but frees Venezuela from several of them. Without sanctions, PDVSA obtains, by selling to the United States directly without a discount, nearly 4 billion additional dollars for its coffers. The White House intends to distance Miraflores from Russian financial aid.”
Alvarez also thinks that the United States needs to incorporate crude oil into its markets and relieve energy pressure. “The Biden administration needs to avoid the electoral cost that could result from a disproportionate increase in fuel prices, a price shock. Venezuelan oil can meet that objective, stabilize supply. In addition, it opens the US market to Venezuelan crude oil, recovering it for Western markets,” he concludes.
Subscribe here to the EL PAÍS newsletter about Colombia and here to the channel on WhatsAppand receive all the information keys on current events in the country.
#Venezuela #reaches #agreements #dozen #international #oil #companies #sanctions