War between Russia and Ukraine, analysts: analyze situations with discipline and with a longer time horizon
There war it had been in the air for some time, at least for the markets. The Ftse Ebthe index of the Milan Stock Exchange, recorded a steady decline in its capitalization, with a decisive acceleration since the beginning of the year. In fact, last January 5th Piazza Affari it was above 28 thousand points, while yesterday, at the end of an extremely complicated day, it closed at 24,796 points, the lowest since July 2020.
The Bagsfor obvious reasons, they think about it betting and about trying to get it right medium-term scenarios. Selling or buying today means aiming for a rise or fall in the value of stocks in the months to come. Therefore, i winds of war they are certainly nothing new for the specialists, who expected a disruptive event in the first half of the year.
The question now is: what will happen on the markets? We will arrive at an uncontrolled series of thuds as occurred in the aftermath of the pandemic, with the Ftse Eb went from just under 25 thousand points in mid-February to just over 14 thousand in March? The answer, at least for the moment, is no.
THE macroeconomic data speaking of a possible point of GDP lost due to sanctions and ainflation around 5% due to the inevitable increase in the cost of energy and some raw materials. But then? Goldman Sachs revised its estimates for European equities down from 530 to 490 points in 12 months for Europe Stoxx 600.
In a report published yesterday, Moneyfarm invited investors to “keep the course and resist the urge to divest, to protect wealth. In many cases, this can have the opposite effect: divest during turbulence of the market is a foolproof way to crystallize losses and it can make you lose the recovery ”.
Along the same lines too Luca Tobagi, Investment Strategist Of Invesco. As reported Financial Loungein fact, the manager explained his conviction: “Lo outbreak of wars has often been abuying opportunities with a view to long period for investors – he said Tobagi – that they had such a time horizon and a high risk tolerance. In short it absolutely is volatility and perception of risks are likely to prevail and there may still be a bearish phase on the markets or in any case of great volatility. However, we want to suggest that these situations be analyzed with discipline and with a longer time horizon. When building diversified portfolios and complex investment strategies, do not risk making the mistake of neglecting an opportunity in long period because the perception of risks prevails short period“.
Finally, there is the chapter on i returns. The Italian spread fell slightly after reaching i 180 points basic, but it is nevertheless at considerable levels and which must make us look at the situation with concern. Because of this Dws claims to expect “a increased pressure on European yields compared to the United States. For the treasury we expect a flattening in the longest part of the curve (10 to 30 years). We have also become more cautious on European corporate bonds. Also for actions, European assets are at the center of the storm“.
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