Ukrainian war|The war in Ukraine has become a war of attrition, where a war is being fought against time, says Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö.
The summary is made by artificial intelligence and checked by a human.
In Ukraine, there is no fear of the collapse of the front, but of the home front, the researcher says.
Ukraine has lost almost half of its energy production capacity due to Russian strikes, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said last week.
Ukraine imports electricity from the EU, but the import volumes are small compared to the needs.
Ukraine is planning to build more import capacity, but it won’t be ready until five years from now.
in Ukraine we now fear the collapse of the home front, says the docent of military sciences at the Swedish National Defense Academy Ilmari Käihkö.
The reason for the fatigue is especially Russia’s extensive attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If the heating and other basic conditions of life do not work, the civilians will tolerate the situation worse.
“Now at the front, there is no fear of the collapse of the front, but the collapse of the home front. There is an expectation of a slow defeat at the front.”
According to Käihkö, enduring the home front is a basic condition for enduring the front. The most important thing is the overall picture of the war: the combination of the economy, industry, civilian life and the situation at the front.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi reported last week that Ukraine has lost almost half of its energy production capacity due to Russian missile and drone strikes. More and more Russian missiles can get through Air Defense of Ukraine.
In Ukraine, it is predicted that there may be up to 20 hours long power outages.
To ease the situation, Ukraine has imported electricity from the EU. However, the electricity import limit has practically been reached, and the import volumes are small for Ukraine’s needs.
Fingrid’s control room manager Arto Pahkin says that it is difficult to increase the electricity import capacity quickly.
“The construction of a high-voltage power line or direct current link requires several years.”
Ukraine is planning to build more import capacity, but it won’t be ready until five years from now.
The situation is challenging, says Pahkin.
“There are hardly any other ways to solve the situation than, for example, consumption flexibility.”
In this case, the consumers themselves reduce the use of electricity. However, this has not always been enough in Ukraine, as the planned blackouts show.
Although power generators may help civil society to survive, it is more difficult to support industry with power machines.
“The needs of industry require large reserve power machines. They are not available anywhere,” says Pahkin.
Ukraine needs its industry for warfare, and repairing power plants is not simple either.
“Sending components from Europe can help the situation of substations, that is, substation equipment and protection technical equipment are needed,” says Pahkin.
However, it is difficult to estimate how quickly Ukraine’s own power plants could be restored to use without knowing the damage to individual power plants or knowing what components are needed to repair them.
Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö
Frontline soldiers from the position, the situation is difficult, according to Käihkö.
“No one can tell them what the solution to the energy supply problems is. One contact was convinced that it does not exist. Optimism has turned into pessimism,” says Käihkö, who is in contact with the front.
Russian attacks will most likely continue, which makes it difficult to repair the power plants.
At worst, the attacks would cause evacuations in the winter. This could affect morale and the mobilization of new soldiers. In worst-case scenarios, Ukraine’s ability to wage war could be compromised. If there is no energy, the economy or the military industry will not run.
“The collapse of the energy supply calls into question whether Ukraine will be able to continue the war for years,” says Käihkö.
So Russia expects Ukraine to submit to a slow defeat.
President Zelenskyi repeatedly asks the West for more anti-aircraft systems to protect Ukraine’s infrastructure. Cuckoo does not see this as a panacea.
“Ukraine’s defense capability is not 100% at any point, and Russia is investing in missile production. As long as the war continues, Russia will be able to continue the attacks.”
However, not every target can be protected, and the West’s production volumes for air defense seem small.
“Ukraine is an awfully big country.”
Hope However, according to Kaihkö, it is. The West has often increased its support for Ukraine when the war situation is in crisis. For example, the Russian attack in Kharkiv freed up the use of Western weapons on the Russian side.
“The impending collapse of the energy supply could increase the sense of urgency in the West,” Käihkö reflects.
Another counter-argument can be found in the preparedness of Ukrainian civilians.
“Maybe we have underestimated the resilience of Ukrainians.”
Ukraine’s home front and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have raised concerns before too.
At the end of 2022, even Kiev was feared to be complete evacuation, if the Russian strikes had caused the country’s energy system to fail completely. However, evacuations were avoided.
On Monday Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi saidthat the incoming Western aid and F-16 fighter jets will strengthen Ukraine’s position significantly.
According to Käihkö, Ukraine’s idea of winning the war is also based more and more on exhausting Russia and on the fact that Russia will give up at some point.
However, it requires that Ukraine’s economy and military industry remain operational.
“Both sides hope time is on their side.”
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