Russia will have to mobilize hundreds of thousands more people to turn into soldiers for the war against Ukraine. This was stated by the general staff of the Kiev armed forces, providing its own overview of the situation. “In connection with the catastrophic losses, it is expected that mass forced mobilization of the population in the Russian Federation and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine will begin in the near future. According to various estimates, the number of new conscripts could range from 400 to 700 thousand people” , we read in the note. Mobilization would be essential in light of the losses suffered by Moscow in over 18 months of war. According to data released by the New York Times at the end of August, Russia lost 300,000 men killed and wounded.
“It should be noted that this time it is planned to recall about 40,000 residents of the Chechen Republic, who will probably be used as ‘blockade units’ behind the Russian troops – reads the message from the Ukrainian General Staff – At the same time, among the population of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the figures of the expected mobilization still remain minimal”. The war, in essence, would remain a burden for the peripheral regions of Russia and would not affect the main cities, which would remain excluded from the sacrifice and, in theory, less exposed to the risk of protests and instability.
If the mobilizations offer new resources to the armed forces, they also have an effect on the country’s economy. “Mobilization and conscription in Russia have increased non-defense workforce shortages. In the run-up to the Russian presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, Russian authorities will likely try to avoid further unpopular mobilizations,” he writes in British intelligence, specifying that “the Russian military plans to hire 420,000 contract personnel by the end of 2023. Mandatory conscription in Russia continues to have negative effects on the workforce. The Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy found that the shortage of workers in Russian industry has reached a new high of 42% for July 2023, 7% higher than in April 2023.”
“On 3 September 2023 – continues the Ministry of Defense in London – the vice-president of the Russian Security Council Dimitry Medvedev stated that 280,000 people have been recruited so far. These numbers cannot be independently verified. Contrary to recruitment efforts carried out elsewhere “In the IT sector, Russia has taken measures to preserve the workforce. This likely highlights particularly acute shortages in the sector after around 100,000 IT workers leave Russia in 2022.”
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