Putin becomes the “first soldier on the field”: how the position of the Russian president on the conflict in Ukraine is changing
“Putin he is no longer the head of the special military operation, but the first soldier in the field and it is a big change ”: so Aleksandr Baunovanalyst of the Carnegie Center in Moscowhe explains to the news agency Agi as after speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin made yesterday on live TV, the objectives, times and tactics of the conflict in Ukrainepassed from “special operation” to full-blown war.
Baunov he focuses in particular on scope of the two speeches facts to the nation since the beginning of the conflict: that of February 24“It was a long speech before a short war, the second was the reverse: a short speech, before a long war”, summarized the analyst.
In February, according to Putin, the conflict “should have been rather short”, with the aim of achieving the denazification of Ukraine and the defense of the Russians of the Donbass from the genocide. Furthermore, the speech was “full of historical references and ideology,” continues Baunov. “He claimed that Ukraine had been Lenin’s invention, who had wrested territories from Russia, and felt that if Kiev rejected communism then it rejected itself and Russia would show her what it really meant. It was the speech of a very confident person, who was preparing to show the world and society a quick result ”.
Ukraine, the announcement of the partial mobilization marks the transition of the operation to war
Yesterday instead the intervention it was “a lot shortpurely in character practicaldevoid of historical or ideological references, absolutely not corresponding, in terms of emotions, to the need to call the people to fight ”, continues the analyst.
“It is true that Putin has always been a cold manbut it is a historical moment, even dictators like Stalin knew how to find the words to encourage the population to make a sacrifice “, notes Baunov, according to whom this aspect confirms the fact that the leader of the Kremlin for too long now he has lived completely detached from people, in total isolation.
With the announcement of the mobilization albeit partial, Moscow actually sanctions the transition from special operation to war in Ukraine. “Putin did not want to go that far”, argues Baunov, according to whom “probably against his will, he succumbed to the war party, to that faction in the establishment that has long called for a massive use of resources and that clashed with the party of the special operation, made by those who wanted a quick intervention, conducted by professionals and without upsetting the life and economy of the country “.
Ukrainian war, the Russian analyst: “Putin is serious when he talks about nuclear power”
For training, Putin himself is a special agent and, the Carnegie analyst recalls, he has always behaved as such: “His rise to the Kremlin, between 1999 and 2000, the campaign to destroy the NTV broadcaster and the oil company was a special operation. Yukos, the ‘successor operation’ in 2008, with Dmitri Medvedev taking his place, the return to power in 2011-2012, the cancellation of the two-term limit that will allow him to reapply in 2024, the annexation of Crimea. These are special operations in the sense that they had a limited time horizon and were conducted by ‘professionals’. There is no doubt, and it has been openly hinted at by several government officials, that the timing of the invasion of Ukraine was calculated in a similar way, probably around six months ”.
From now, “Putin is no longer the head of the special military operationbut the first soldier on the field and it is a big change ”, warns Baunov, urging not to underestimate the nuclear threat reiterated by the Russian leader.
“The main objective of the mobilization is to demonstrate that Russia is not bluffing, that its intentions remain serious”, concludes the analyst, “when Putin talks about nuclear weapons it must be understood that nare not just words, unfortunately: its coordinate system predicts that if you start threatening or listen to you or have to implement that threat, it’s about a dangerous escalation, because on this level there are no limits. Now we must soon understand how to get out of it ”.
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