Abdullah Abu Deif (Washington, Cairo)
Political analysts considered that the conviction of the Republican candidate in the US presidential elections, Donald Trump, could increase the participation of his supporters during the elections scheduled for the end of this year, and that the ruling does not affect his continuation of competing with his rival, the current US President Joe Biden.
A jury in the Manhattan District Court in New York decided, after six weeks of hearings, that Trump was guilty of the 34 charges against him of falsifying accounting documents in the final stages of his campaign for the 2016 presidential elections and covering up the purchase of an actress’s silence, becoming the first former US president to be criminally convicted.
American political analyst, Hadeel Owais, said that after the accusations were officially brought against Trump, his fortunes rose among his supporters, who see these accusations as part of a conspiracy against him, which Trump describes as the “deep state,” and that the courts are part of it. As a result, this group increased their adherence to him as a candidate. she has.
Owais added to Al-Ittihad, however, that this does not mean that Trump does not face real challenges, especially among young people and women in the suburbs far from urban centers. This group is considered crucial to winning the elections, and Trump still lacks sufficient popularity among these circles.
Also, how states, such as Arizona and Georgia, will vote remains uncertain, and these states that voted for the “Democrats” in the 2020 elections need Trump to regain them to win the next elections.
The American analyst pointed out that there are some positive indicators in favor of Trump, as his fundraising situation has improved, making him superior to Biden in this aspect, indicating that the trials may be, according to some “Democrats,” free electoral propaganda for Trump. However, Hadeel stresses that those who consider Trump a controversial figure who is haunted by legal problems may refrain from voting for him because he is causing many problems and deep divisions in the American street, so he may lose more support from the middle class that is not affiliated with any party.
In a related context, Andrew Jose, a news reporter and political analyst based in Washington, DC, said that the Republican candidate’s chances are improving, because angry voters are the base that will continue to appear in large numbers, as he relied on them mainly in the primaries against competing candidates within the Republican Party.
Jose explained to Al-Ittihad that Biden will not gain much from the ruling, especially since Trump’s supporters and the Republican Party see the conviction as “political” to a large degree, and historically many prosecutors have tried to undermine Trump for various reasons and in multiple cases, so the prevailing perception among voters is Republicans said the purpose of the trial was not so much to achieve justice as to obstruct Trump.
He pointed out that in the short term, it is still unclear how this will affect Biden, as voter turnout is the decisive factor. Biden has angered many American Muslims for what they see as support for Israel, which may prompt them not to vote for him. However, it is not certain for whom they will vote. There may be a punishment vote, so the influence of voters who may withdraw from voting for Trump will be limited, especially if this is compensated for by a large turnout from Republicans.
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