The parties in Catalonia face this Sunday the fourth electoral event in two years. Exhausted materially and ideologically, they hold their breath in the face of elections in which partisan concerns overshadow the intense debate on the future of the EU or concern about the rise of the extreme right. But, above all, the coincidence with the negotiations for the formation of the Parliament’s Board and the investiture of the future president has ended up muting any attempt to take the campaign to European issues.
In the eight European elections held in Spain, the average participation in Catalonia barely reaches 51%. Except for the peaks of the first elections, in 1987, and the last ones, in the midst of the trial of processes In 2019, the graph has always tended towards the valley. In 2009, it fell to almost 37%, its historical minimum. The first question this Sunday is what reception the elections will have among voters where the domestic results will be looked at with a magnifying glass.
That politics has changed completely in Catalonia is shown by the surveys, which follow the path of these two years. Or the comparison with how things were in the 2019 European elections. The winds are now blowing in favor of the Catalan socialists, who have won four victories and are pursuing their fifth. Five years ago, the PSC was looking for its way after crossing the desert due to the polarization of the processes. Javi Lopez, the main Catalan on the socialist list, has been an MEP since 2014. With the help of Illa, the PSC, aligned with Pedro Sánchez, has been accumulating territorial power, crowned with the mayor of Barcelona, and adding records: in the regional elections For the first time, he achieved a victory in seats and votes and also caused the independence movement – or previously nationalism – to lose its absolute majority. With a call for mobilization to stop the extreme right, the PSC wants to be decisive in the same way it was on 23-J, when it contributed one million votes to Sánchez.
At the 2019 event, the panorama was different. Then all eyes were on how the head-to-head between the former president Carles Puigdemont, then living in Belgium, and Oriol Junqueras, sitting on the bench. The founder of Junts won by 254,000 votes. Junts and ERC added 1.7 million ballots in Catalonia, close to 50% of the total. Junts then obtained three MEPs and ERC, which was already in coalition with EH Bildu and BNG, obtained the same. Now Puigdemont’s people are once again betting on the solo formula, while the Republicans have expanded their candidacy, Ara Repúbliques, including the Balearic Islands of Ara Més.
The independence movement as a collective hopes to make a show of force after losing the majority in Parliament. But, within that block, each party needs a good result for different reasons. Those of Puigdemont, who have Toni Comín as the headliner, are looking for a victory that confirms their superiority against ERC. The impossibility of the former president is invested has reinforced the option of seeking an electoral repetition. As for ERC, in the midst of an internal struggle for the future of the party and still in shock After losing 13 deputies, a good result from the hand of Diana Riba would avoid a fourth defeat. If the result is not good, they will have the consolation of masking their results in those of Ara Repúblicas. If the furniture is saved, they could gain strength in the investiture negotiations, where their 20 deputies have a lot of weight.
The commons come to 9-J with two objectives. The priority is to be ahead of Podemos in the first elections in which they face each other in Catalonia since they began to go together, with Catalunya Si Que Es Pot. The second, sustain the results of Sumar. In one year, the commons have lost two deputies in the Parliament and a good part of the municipal space, including the mayor of Barcelona. In the general elections, in any case, they were the second most voted force in Catalonia. It does not seem so simple, however, to maintain the loyalty of the vote in an increasingly densified space, even more so when the PSOE presents its most progressive discourse and Podemos intends to turn Catalonia into one of its springboards.
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The campaign is also read nationally for the PP and Vox. In both their speeches the Catalan issue has come up but only as a battering ram against the PSOE. In the last Catalan elections, the PP managed to escape ostracism, with 15 deputies, and has presented the 9-J as a great plebiscite against Sánchez and the amnesty. Finally, Ciudadanos is taking a gamble in what could be the last attempt to not disappear from the map by this group, born in Catalonia as a response against nationalism.
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