Latin America is experiencing a new political cycle. The shift to the left of the first decade of the 2000s is a thing of the past and in many countries in the region far-right electoral forces are gaining ground. The recent triumph of Javier Milei in Argentina is a clear example of this new trend, within which it is also possible to record the four years of the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil (2019-2022) and the current administration of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador . There are also cases of far-right forces that have not conquered the Executive Branch, but have managed to make a space for themselves in the electoral arena: Cabildo Abierto in Uruguay, the Republican Party in Chile and Renovación Popular in Peru.
Proof of the similarity between these different far-right forces throughout Latin America is that those who lead them maintain a relationship of mutual love. Jair Bolsonaro was the first confirmed international guest at the inauguration of Javier Milei and Rafael López Aliaga recently decorated José Antonio Kast with the Lima medal. On the ideological level, however, the Latin American extreme right places different emphases: some are energetic defenders of the free market, others articulate a particular animosity towards the left and quite a few develop a populist discourse to attack “the corrupt elite” and defend the “ pure people.” What then is the common denominator between these formations? A study by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) of the Social Democratic Party of Germany allows us to identify two of the most common features: On the one hand, the defense of “iron fist” policies to confront crime, which usually involves not only demanding an increase in legal penalties and facilitating citizen access to weapons, but also the militarization of the police. On the other hand, the adoption of extremely conservative positions regarding sexual issues, which includes issues such as abortion, equal marriage and LGTBQ+ rights.
If we witness the rise of the extreme right in the region, it is reasonable to think that the Latin American electorate is becoming more conservative. In other words, what would explain the support for the extreme right would be that voters are more right-wing today than before. The available empirical evidence, however, reveals that this thesis is implausible. Below, I present three graphs that support this skepticism; Each of them is built with aggregated data for the whole of Latin America (from Chile to Mexico) from the Americas Barometer.
Approval of marriage
egalitarian
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
Approval of marriage
egalitarian
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
Approval of equal marriage
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
The first graph shows the average for all of Latin America of those who are in favor of equal marriage and a gradual increase can be observed for this measure over time.
In favor of abortion when health
mother is in danger
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
In favor of abortion when health
mother is in danger
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
In favor of abortion when the mother’s health is in danger
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
The second graph presents the average for the entire region of those who justify abortion when the mother’s health is in danger and, as in the previous figure, we see that support for this position has been growing.
Ideological positioning
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
Ideological positioning
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
Ideological positioning
Source: Barometer of the Americas (Lapop)
Finally, in the third graph you can see the self-positioning of the electorate on a scale from left to right for the years 2004, 2010 and 2018. Here it is evident that there are no significant changes that allow us to think that it has been increasing. the number of people who define themselves as right-wing; In fact, there is a slight growth in those who define themselves as left-wing.
Taking this empirical evidence into consideration, one might think that we are facing a paradox: even though there seem to be no signs that the Latin American electorate is turning to the right, we do observe that far-right forces are expanding their electoral weight. How is it explained? It is true that we need research to be able to offer empirically and theoretically solid answers to this question, but for now it seems important to develop a line of argument. Much of the success of the Latin American extreme right is due to a punishment of the incumbents: just as we cannot understand Milei’s triumph without taking into account the dramatic economic situation in Argentina, we cannot understand the rise of Bolsonaro without taking into consideration the scandals of corruption that shook Brazil (the operation Lava Jato). Seen this way, many of those who support the extreme right do so not because they completely agree with their ideas, but above all because they want to show their rejection of those in power.
The problem is that when the far-right conquers the Executive Branch, the institutions of (liberal) democracy end up suffering. Hungary under the mandate of Viktor Orbán is a paradigmatic example of this situation. Brazil and the United States are safe for now because neither Bolsonaro nor Trump managed to be re-elected, but both cases reveal a deeper problem: the virtual disappearance of the conventional right.
Unfortunately, there are every reasons to think that something similar could happen throughout Latin America. Just as Mauricio Macri took 24 hours to give his support to Milei, the conventional right in Chile took the same time to support José Antonio Kast, the far-right candidate, in the second electoral round of 2021. In summary, the risk that What brings about the rise of the extreme right is not only its attack on the institutions of liberal democracy, but above all the phagocytation of the conventional right. Comparative evidence reveals that without the latter it is impossible for the democratic system to endure. This is bad news for Latin America, where it has taken a long time for conventional right-wing political forces to consolidate, willing to respect the rules of the democratic game. History will end up telling us if they resisted the onslaught of the extreme right, but for now everything indicates that they are not resisting.
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