08/27/2024 – 19:22
BTG Pactual CEO Roberto Sallouti believes that the current figures for the Brazilian economy are good, including the fiscal indicators themselves, which are better than expected, but there is a lot of concern about the future. The main one is the fear of whether the fiscal framework will be respected or not. “I think it will be,” he said at a Santander event.
“I don’t think we’re going to have a scenario as benign as imagined at the end of last year. Nor as worrying as imagined at some points in the second quarter,” said the BTG president.
In the debate, which brought together the president of Santander Brasil, Mario Leão, Sallouti gave a quick summary of the seesaw that the local and international economy has become in the first half of the year. Brazil started the year with the exchange rate at around R$4.80 and the Federal Reserve signaling up to six cuts this year.
But this scenario quickly changed, with inflation in the United States showing resistance to falling, and a debate that the Fed would have to raise interest rates again.
In Brazil, statements by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against the independence of the Central Bank and spending controls, accompanied by a change in the fiscal target and a Central Bank divided over the direction of the Selic rate, helped to sour the atmosphere.
It was when the dollar hit R$5.70 that the alarm went off in Brasília. “The exchange rate is what best reflects expectations,” said Sallouti. At that point, the government began to talk about respecting the fiscal framework and the Central Bank directors chosen by the government began to speak out in favor of tougher measures to combat inflation, helping to bring some relief.
#biggest #concern #framework #respected #BTG #Pactual #CEO