If the president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, could boast of anything, it was that he governed without opposition. In three months he had managed to get Congress to almost unanimously approve the five bills he sent, all of them promised in his campaign. Legislators did not vote against even the most thorny projects, such as the law to raise taxes on citizens. The governability pact with the other political movements had consolidated for Noboa a positive image of a leader who had achieved control of the country, at least in the Legislature. Something that allowed him to distance himself from his successor, Guillermo Lasso, who from the beginning of his mandate broke any agreement with the large political groups and led him to hand over the Presidency prematurely, decreeing the death crusade to evade a political trial that he promoted the block of the Citizen Revolution, of former president Rafael Correa.
But something broke on Friday, when Noboa ordered the assault on the Mexican embassy in Quito to capture Jorge Glas, an unprecedented decision that violated international norms on the inviolability of diplomatic headquarters. The first warning has come from the legislative group of Revolución Ciudadana which, although it was not official, had an unsigned agreement to support the laws promoted by Noboa and thus guarantee governability. “We declare ourselves in opposition within the National Assembly to his Government, Mr. Noboa,” said Viviana Veloz, vice president of the Legislature. Within the Assembly, although its deputies occupy the most seats, they are not the majority on their own, but they are in a position to obtain enough votes to block any Government project when they unite with their allies. As they did with Guillermo Lasso.
The first maneuver already has a date and time. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs, the Interior and the Minister of Defense have been summoned to the Oversight Commission of the Assembly, where the majority of the members are from the new opposition bloc. The political war is announced. “We are going to initiate the different inspection actions and we are going to present the respective requests for impeachment,” said Veloz. And if something characterizes this Assembly, it is the experience in prosecuting officials. Since 2021, the Assembly has presented 22 impeachment requests and two ministers have been censured, according to the Legislative Observatory.
The immediate effect that the Government will feel will be in the 11 popular consultation and referendum questions promoted by Noboa. Only 10 movements and parties have registered to campaign, where the majority are social groups, no majority political party will campaign for yes or no. Neither the Citizen Revolution nor the Democratic Left registered to take a position on a consultation that will touch, among other issues, on labor rights, which for decades were their staunch defenders. “They were going to let the popular consultation pass, but I think that Revolución Ciudadana will campaign behind the scenes, in the territory, against those elections,” explains Esteban Ron, political analyst.
And even if President Noboa wins the consultation and referendum, he will be conditioned to pass the reforms to the Assembly, where he will find a blockade. “That is going to create a niche for discussion to undermine the figure of the president,” adds Ron. For the analyst, polarization returns to the political scene of Ecuador, which will deepen with the days, when the diplomatic and economic consequences of Noboa's decision to forcefully enter the Mexican embassy to arrest Jorge Glas, who It does not solve the country's biggest problem: the insecurity crisis. Violent deaths have begun to increase, and extortions, kidnappings and robberies of citizens have doubled.
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