With the formation of a coalition government in Spain led by the PSOE, the extreme right has seen its advance limited. The victory in Poland led by another coalition, this time very varied but led by the conservative Donad Tusk – from the EPP family but against pacts with the ultras -, against the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), has meant more sighs of relief at the decline of the anti-European far-right of PiS and Vox. These balances, which are reflected in two of the largest countries in the EU, will be examined again in the elections to the European Parliament in June 2024. In them, the great Spanish forces, PSOE and PP, and their policies, will be re-examined. The Popular Party, who have taken their battle against the amnesty to the community institutions, will also try to set the European agenda.
They will be decisive elections for a European Union in full transformation, which will have to initiate the first internal reforms for the next great enlargement towards the East, which faces another wave of populism that feeds on the fears and boredom that have remained after the pandemic. of coronavirus, of the effects of a war on European soil – Russia’s war against Ukraine is on its way to two years with no end in sight – and in a context in which inflation has made a hole in the pockets of citizens.
In the European elections from June 6 to 9 (in Spain they vote on the 9th) the European Chamber will be formed. Later, when autumn begins and the mandate of the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen ends, the big positions will be distributed: the head of the community Executive, the European Council, the Parliament (in July) and the portfolios for the commissioners. And in all of them, and in the parliamentary seats, that distribution of power will be transferred that will also mark the policies that will reach the lives of Europeans. There are still no names on the table for the big positions. Nor has Von der Leyen, who faces a very turbulent end to her term, revealed whether she would run again.
The German Christian Democrat, from the European People’s Party but far from the current of the president of the group and the party, Manfred Weber, who has not objected to the national formations agreeing with the extreme right to govern based on the cases (such as the PP with the Vox ultras), he would have to win over not only the opposition parties, but also his own.
Currently, the EPP has the majority of the chamber but the great coalition which was formed with the group of European socialists and which allowed the advancement of European values and a certain moderation in the debate against the positions of the extreme right, and which in more recent years was supported by the liberals, is today practically broken. The popular ones (or at least a good part of them and the group led by Weber) have been moving towards more conservative positions in some social measures and in other elements, such as certain environmental reforms, such as the law for the restoration of nature, which has managed to get ahead (although a little less ambitious) in the Spanish presidency of the Council of the EU.
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The first polls for the 2024 European elections suggest that, despite some decline, the EPP would remain stable. Analysts also point out that the extreme right, whose discourse is advancing in countries such as Austria, Germany and France, would grow significantly. And all this while the debate continues within the European popular group to try to attract the ultra-Italian Giorgia Meloni (who is now in the same European political family as VOX) to a coalition as they have already done with the ultra-conservative ODS party of Petr Fiala, from the Czech Republic, who will go in alliance with the parties of the EPP family to the European Parliament elections. Meanwhile, the Renew liberals, who this legislature have held the key to many policies, could lose space.
In the elections to the European Parliament many of the national debates will be moved again, but beyond that there will be others, and very decisive ones, on the table: support for Ukraine, migration policies (one of the most divisive issues within the community) , the economy, the climate crisis. Also the next enlargement and what model of Europe citizens want.
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