Despite strong support for Kamala Harris, polls show an unexpected upswing for Donald Trump. The 2024 US election promises to be exciting.
Washington, DC – The US election 2024 is gaining momentum. With the shift in the Democrats on Kamala Harris the momentum seemed to be on the blue side, even in the swing states the Trump camp was worried. And now that even the charismatic Obamas Donald Trump at the Democratic Party convention in Chicago and support Harris, Trump suddenly senses a new dawn in new polls. A foretaste of what the coming months will bring?
Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 US election: Bookmakers currently see former president ahead of Harris
A Newsweek-Report, Donald Trump’s chances of becoming US President for the second time next November have risen again with the bookmakers. According to the forecast platform Polymarket on Tuesday evening – while the second evening of the Democratic Party Convention was still underway – Donald Trump was slightly ahead of his rival Kamala Harris. The bookmakers saw Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. The difference may seem small, but just 24 hours later the numbers were reversed, reports Newsweek.
If you look at the graph for the 2024 US election on Wednesday (August 21, as of 4:15 p.m.), Trump’s lead has grown even further. The former president is now 5 percentage points ahead of the incumbent vice president. Harris, on the other hand, was given the best chances on August 15, when she was ahead of Trump by 54 percent to 44 percent. Another US betting portal, however, saw the odds as even.
Kamala Harris against Donald Trump: US election polls show close race
However, serious polls for the 2024 US election still largely speak in favor of Kamala Harris. The average of the polls conducted by the opinion research website FiveThirtyEight The polls compiled by the 2018 Republican Party show that Harris is 2.8 points ahead of Trump as of Wednesday afternoon. Harris is even doing well in the contested swing states: the 59-year-old is ahead of the 78-year-old in Arizona (0.7 points), Pennsylvania (1.3 points), Michigan (2.8 points) and Wisconsin (3.2 points).
Donald Trump, on the other hand, is leading in the otherwise red states of Georgia (1.2 percent) and North Carolina (0.2 percent) – albeit only narrowly. In most states, there is a clear majority; while Trump has no chance in the traditionally liberal states of California or New York, for example, Harris has no chance in the strongly conservative states of Alabama or Kentucky. The race is evenly balanced in Nevada, among other places. The US polls show that it will be an exciting battle before the ballot box is opened on November 5th.
US election 2024: Harris should look at Clinton’s previous poll numbers
At the Democratic Party Convention, former President Barack Obama warned against too much enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, as the race with Donald Trump remains close. Such warnings are supported by the polls. Although they show that since President Trump’s withdrawal, Joe Biden from the presidential race and the advancement of Harris has changed the dynamic of the election campaign. The Vice President is riding a wave of approval that currently places her ahead of Trump in the nationwide ratings. However, this nationwide lead is small – and above all, the US election will not be decided by the nationwide results, but by the results in the individual states.
The fate of former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is also a warning for Harris and the Democrats: Clinton was clearly ahead in the polls before the 2016 election, then received around 2.9 million more votes nationwide than Trump – and still lost because of her defeat in the key states that were decisive.
After the various misjudgments made by US pollsters in recent years, a healthy dose of skepticism is also appropriate when looking at this year’s polls. However, the mistrust of Harris’s high poll ratings is also fuelled by the Trump camp, which is trying to downplay the euphoria surrounding the candidate, which is referred to as “Kamalamania”. The media are using “false polls” against the republican Trump’s vice presidential candidate claimed JD Vance in the right-wing station FoxNews. (nak with AFP)
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