Friedrich Merz could start his candidacy for chancellor with a defeat if there is no change of government in Brandenburg. The reason is a risky maneuver – in which Markus Söder is also involved.
Berlin – It is the last state election before the election campaign in Berlin really gets going. The outcome of the Brandenburg election will also have an impact on federal politics – as well as on the fortunes and woes of the candidates for chancellor.
Brandenburg election: Head-to-head race between AfD and SPD in polls
Currently, the SPD and AfD a very exciting head-to-head race before the Brandenburg election: According to polls, the AfD is ahead with 28 percent, the SPD follows just one percentage point behind. This means that it is difficult to predict what the future government in Potsdam will look like. There are several options:
- The other factions do not want to form a coalition with the AfD. An alliance of the SPD, CDU and Wagenknecht’s party BSW with its own majority or a grand coalition of the CDU and SPD is conceivable.
- Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke had hinted that he would resign if the AfD won the election. The SPD is likely to lead the new government either way, and the CDU will be a junior partner at best.
Risky maneuver by Friedric Merz shortly before the Brandenburg election
For the Union’s newly elected candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the Brandenburg election could mean a serious personal setback. Namely if Woidke remains prime minister with the SPD as the strongest force. “ Friedrich Merz will probably start as a candidate for chancellor with a defeat because he can be held jointly liable if the hoped-for change of government in Brandenburg does not take place,” explains political consultant Johannes Hillje in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA.
In this respect, Merz took a strategic risk by announcing his candidacy for chancellor just days before the Brandenburg election rather than afterwards. “It doesn’t make sense to me why Merz announced the decision before the election,” says Hillje. The expert has a suspicion: “Perhaps Markus Söder’s statements of ambition accelerated this.” A few weeks ago, the CSU leader had hinted that he would be available to run for chancellor if he were asked.
Söder “wants something from Merz that we don’t yet know what it is”
At the joint press conference between Merz and Söder, it was surprisingly announced that the decision for Merz had been made and agreed upon months ago. Hillje doubts this: “I do not believe that this decision had been prepared for weeks or months.” Söder’s sudden ambitions may have triggered Merz’s impulse to act quickly to pacify Söder. “I can imagine that Markus Söder wanted to drive up the price with his comments,” said Hillje. “He wants something from Merz that we don’t yet know what it is. That could be a ministerial post. Or the assurance that there will be no black-green coalition, but a grand coalition.” This is supported by the fact that Söder recently very conspicuously and prominently described black-green as a no-go.
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