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Several attacks per day, several defeats per day. Russia continues to fight for every meter of Ukraine against resurgent and aging defenders.
Kharkiv – “The Western countries want to punish Russia and use its example to intimidate anyone who pursues an independent foreign policy,” claimed Sergei Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Minister warned the world in Moscow at the foreign policy forum “Primakov Readings” about what he considers to be his country’s legitimate aspirations, while Russia’s invading troops are trying to put the words into practice: Russian troops have currently increased the pace of their offensive and attack operations, writes the Ukrainian Pravda: “They are looking for ways to break through the Ukrainian defense and are trying to force Ukrainian units out of their positions.” But so far, without success.
In his foreign policy, Lavrov refers to Russian constitutional provisions, according to which the borders of the administrative districts of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk are considered Russian territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyses. The Institute reports 99 battles on various fronts. Pravda citing a recent Facebook post by the Ukrainian General Staff for a day of war. The situation is particularly critical on the Pokrovsk Front and in the Kharkiv administrative district. On the Pokrovsk Front, the Russians are continuing to push for a breakthrough, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. “Since the beginning of the day, they have attacked the Ukrainian defenders’ defensive lines 34 times. 23 of their attacks failed, and 11 more attacks are underway,” the General Staff wrote on Facebook.
“We are certainly open to a dialogue based on the recognition of the realities, primarily the territorial ones, enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation: non-discrimination of everything Russian in Ukraine, prohibition of the glorification of Nazism and transformation of Ukraine into a normal secular state. These are feasible demands that I would not call excessive.”
According to its short-term Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, NATO does not expect any “major breakthroughs” by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, such as the Daily Mirror reported. “They tried again this spring and summer to launch an offensive – but so far they have only achieved marginal success,” Stoltenberg told the news agency French Press AgencyAccording to him, NATO sees no signs that Russia has the capabilities or the strength for major breakthroughs. Time Online reported that the ISW had reported isolated skirmishes in the Kharkiv area, but Ukraine is said to have won them, according to the ISW is in a stalemate on this front.
Ukraine stands firm against Russia: “The situation is tense, but not catastrophic.”
In the area around Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform for the past 24 hours 27 battles. According to the Ukrainian Pravda There were 38 battles in the Pokrovsk area – battles of “various intensity”. The situation is complicated, but under the control of the defenders, reports Ukrinform citing the Ukrainian General Staff. Military analysts also remain calm: The situation is tense, but not catastrophic, Franz-Stefan Gady told the ZDFThe ISW analyst believes that July will be the decisive month on the front lines. At the end of July, the wave of mobilization that has just begun in Ukraine will have an impact and change the front lines.
Gady speaks of tens of thousands of men who are just beginning their military training – he expects the first infantry training to last five weeks. According to him, this basic training is the same for all those called up, followed by a few days or weeks of specialized training in the various brigades or in NATO partner countries or even in the USA, such as the training of pilots or Patriot crews. Gady attributes the difficult conditions on the front lines primarily to the current lack of forces on the Ukrainian side.
Ukraine on an equal footing with Russia: “No position has been lost”
On the Kupyansk front, Ukrainian defenders are said to have repelled seven attacks by Russian forces near Synkivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka and Stepova Novoselivka since the beginning of the day – although various skirmishes are still ongoing. On the Lyman front, eleven Russian attacks have failed – according to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Russians have tried in vain to improve their positions. The invaders have therefore continued two attacks in the areas around Nevske and Makiivka. The situation is, however, under control.
On the front around Siversk, the Russian forces continued to attack in the areas of Bilohorivka, Spirne and Rozdoliwka. The General Staff counts nine battles there, four attacks were repelled, five battles are ongoing. The city of Toretsk appears to be of increased interest to Russia, where the Russians are attacking in large numbers, with seven battles being counted within one day. Activities on the front in Kurakhovo remain unchanged – especially in the towns of Krasnohorivka, Heorhiiwka and Paraskowiivka – Russia attacked there seven times in one day. On the Prydniprovske front, five Russian attacks are said to have been unsuccessful. “The General Staff states that no positions were lost,” writes the Ukrainian Pravda.
The Russian attacks could be so fierce because the aggressors expected the defenders to be relieved; the Russians wanted to use the time in which Ukrainian losses could hardly be compensated, analyst Gady suspects in ZDF. There are currently just under 200,000 troops fighting on each side directly at the front – for every soldier fighting directly, he counts three with support tasks. However, he admits that as the war goes on, the soldiers are also getting older: Gady estimates that the average age of soldiers, especially on the Ukrainian side, has risen from 40 at the start of the war to 45. According to him, however, it is important to understand “that neither side has such quantitative superiority that a decisive breakthrough can occur,” says Gady.
Putin lures people to the front with the cancellation of loans or debts
According to the Institute for the Study of War Russia also apparently has to fight for new soldiers at home: The Russian military is still advertising for Russian military service with the promise of high payments and the suspension of debts, loans and criminal charges. According to ISW to recruit Russian soldiers, an advertisement promising a one-time payment of the equivalent of approximately 14,500 euros, a monthly salary of just over 2,100 euros, the suspension of court proceedings for debts and loans, and the possibility of having one’s criminal record expunged.
At the end of 2022, the Russian Federation Council passed a law suspending criminal proceedings against soldiers or those who volunteered for military service. In March of this year, President Vladimir Putin passed a law allowing those threatened with prosecution to avoid prosecution by joining the army, reports the ISW. Sergei Lavrov made it clear during the “Primakov Readings” that the war will probably get even older. “We are certainly open to a dialogue based on the recognition of the realities, especially the territorial ones, which are enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation,” he said, once again dashing all hopes of peace without territorial concessions from Ukraine.
He called the condition of Russia’s withdrawal to the borders of Ukraine in 1991 “Zelensky’s hopeless and unconditional ‘peace formula'”. According to him, all these “futile attempts” have no future and “are already achieving a diametrically opposite effect”. Lavrov also continues to speak of “non-discrimination against everything Russian in Ukraine, prohibition of the glorification of Nazis and transformation of Ukraine into a normal secular state” as conditions for peace. “These are feasible demands that I would not call excessive.”
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