A direct attack on Ukraine from Belarus is considered unlikely. However, military experts warn of the impact on the Ukrainian war in Donbass and Kursk.
Kyiv – Belarus has served as Russia’s base of operations since its major attack in 2022. Ukraine WarOn Monday (26 August), Ukraine announced that it would again strengthen border protection, as Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has been massing troops on the border with Ukraine since the end of June.
In mid-August, Lukashenko announced that he would move “a third of the army” to the border. Even if an attack remains unlikely, it could cost Ukraine important resources that are needed on the front in Donbass or for the Kursk offensive.
ISW: Attack on Ukraine from Belarus “still unlikely”
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that it was “still unlikely” that Lukashenko intends to attack Ukraine. Although Lukashenko is the closest partner of Russia’s president Vladimir PutinHowever, direct involvement in the Ukraine war would involve too many risks for the Belarusian dictator.
It is more likely that Belarus wants to provide Russia with support by moving its troops. In this scenario, Lukashenko’s intention would be to extend the front line, which the Ukrainians would potentially have to defend. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry nevertheless warned Belarus to respect the border. In the event of an attack, Ukraine would defend itself, it said.
Tensions between Ukraine and Belarus after Kursk offensive
There is a certain temporal connection to the offensive of the Ukrainian military in the Russian region of Kursk. This extended the front line and apparently forced Putin’s military to relocate some units from the Donbass to Kursk.
Russia reacted as it always does when it comes under military pressure in the Ukraine war: On Monday morning, Russia launched heavy air strikes against civilian infrastructure across the country. The Belarusian troop deployment to the border, according to the ISW, is comparable to troop deployments that Lukashenko had already ordered in 2022 and 2023. Nothing happened then.
Military expert Reisner: Ukraine must move “tens of thousands of soldiers” to the border with Belarus
Nevertheless, “Ukraine cannot simply ignore this,” said Colonel Markus Reisner, strategy expert of the Austrian Armed Forces, in an assessment published by the Army Press Office. Ukraine must now again have “tens of thousands of soldiers” ready for the possible defense of the border with Belarus.
Whether in Kursk, in the Donbass or under Russian missile fire: Reisner painted a grim picture of the military situation in Ukraine. Putin’s troops would continue to advance near Pokrovsk in the Donbass. On the entire front in the Donbass, Russia Ukraine continues to be involved in a war of attrition. It is not yet clear whether the “attempt at a liberation strike” in Kursk will succeed. Reisner expects further Ukrainian actions like those in Kursk, with the aim of regaining the initiative. However, it is expected that Russia’s military could grow to up to 700,000 soldiers by the end of the year. Ukraine, meanwhile, is having problems with mobilization. (kb)
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