The most probable end of World Cup in Qatar 2022 is between Argentina and Francewith the reigning world champions most likely to retain the title, according to a study conducted by the Brazilian investment bank XP and who used mathematical models for data analysis.
However, although they will probably face more difficulties to reach the decisive match, the brazilian national team It is the one that has the best chance of winning the title if it manages to reach the final, according to the model.
mathematical prediction
The XP study points to the teams from the Netherlands, with a 18.8% chance; Argentina (18.4%), France (17.4%), Belgium (16.7%), England (15.7%), Brazil (15.4%), Spain (14.2%) and Denmark ( 11.1%), in that order, as the eight with the best chance of reaching the final.
But the simulation indicates that, in case they reach the final, the ones with the best chances of winning the title are Brazil (63%), Argentina (61%), Spain (59%), Holland (56.7%) , Belgium (51.2%), France (48.7%), Denmark (48.2%), Germany (47.1%) and England (46.1%).
“According to our simulations, the 5 teams with the best chances of going to the finals are Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Spain and the Netherlands. By way of comparison, betting sites include Argentina, Brazil and Spain among the favourites, but they also place France and England among the top five most likely,” XP said in his study.
The report adds that simulations point to the final between France and Argentina as the most probable, with a 55% chance that the French will win the title in that scenario. Also that, despite the fact that the host countries traditionally advance to the round of 16, with the exception of South Africa in 2010, the host team, with 19.5%, will hardly make it past the group stage.
Argentina vs. Arab Emirates
Another conclusion is that Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Portugal will probably advance without difficulties to the round of 16, according to the study.
“A possible surprise is the Netherlands, which is very well ranked in our analysis, but is not as demanded by bettors,” he adds.
According to XP, the mathematical model took into account different variables, including the characteristics of each team, its location in the different world rankings -including that of the FIFA-, their performance in recent matches, their history of results when faced with each other and the possible crossings from the positions in their groups.
It also took into account statistics such as possession of the ball, goals, assists, shots on goal and corner kicks in recent games.
EFE
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