Political speeches… How are they affected by warming?!
An analysis of more than 7 million speeches by lawmakers suggests that politicians use simpler language on days with higher temperatures, which researchers say may indicate a possible effect of a warming climate on cognition.
The study, published in the journal iScience, analyzed about 7.4 million speeches delivered by more than 28,500 lawmakers in eight countries in an attempt to find out whether extreme temperatures might affect cognitive performance – even indoors. Extreme heat and cold are expected to become more frequent and intense as climate change develops, with extreme temperatures linked to a variety of health problems.
The researchers analyzed transcripts of speeches delivered in the capital cities of London, Vienna, Amsterdam, Wellington, New Zealand, Copenhagen, Madrid, Bonn, and Berlin, Germany, between 1950 and 2019, linking temperature data on the day of the speech to the language used by lawmakers.
The analysis showed that language proficiency among politicians decreased on days with high temperatures, but not on cold days, as heat led to a decrease in language complexity equivalent to “almost half a month of decline in educational attainment.” Speeches delivered on hot days had 3.3% shorter words, although the length of sentences remained the same.
When the researchers analyzed a subset of data from Germany, they found that for lawmakers over the age of 57, heat effects started at 69.8 to 75.2 degrees Fahrenheit. Language complexity differs during hot periods between men and women but this is not statistically significant. The researchers said that the effects that appear during speeches inside buildings suggest that legislators’ brief exposure to external heat on their way to deliver speeches could have an effect, noting that “extreme temperatures can also cause sleep disturbances.”
Simplifying political discourse has mixed effects. “While simpler language can enhance audience understanding and engagement, it may also indicate reduced cognitive performance due to heat,” Tobias Weidmann, an assistant professor of political science at Aarhus University in Denmark and co-author of the study, said in a press release. This may have negative consequences on the productivity of members of parliament, affecting legislative decision-making, citizen representation, and budget planning.”
The study did not test specific mechanisms behind the decline in language complexity, and the researchers note that many political speeches are written long before they are delivered. They recommend that future research include more advanced measures of language and more demographic data on speakers. However, they write that extreme temperatures could have “far-reaching negative effects on society as a whole.”
Erin Blackmore*
*Writer specializing in environmental issues
Published by special arrangement with The Washington Post Licensing and Syndication Service.
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