Poland | “We have a populist as prime minister, and he says what hurts,” says an expert about the announcement to end arms aid to Ukraine

Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Wednesday that Poland would no longer send armed aid to Ukraine. Last week, the country defied the decision of the EU Commission, according to which Ukrainian grain should once again be allowed to flow freely through Poland to the rest of the world.

What is happening?

Why in the world has Poland, which generously helped Ukraine in many ways, suddenly started to anger its neighbor and possibly break the united front of the Western camp in opposing Russia?

Senior expert at the Polish Geremek Foundation Piotr Maciej Kaczyński wasting no time getting to the point, he starts his answer like this:

“Because we have an election on October 15.”

According to Kaczyński, the Law and Justice Party (PiS), which governs Poland, is in a very difficult position during the elections, and the party is trying to harness the fatigue related to the war in Ukraine as a vote-fishing tool to stay in power.

“We have a populist as prime minister and he says what hurts. [Ukrainan aseavun lopettamisessa] it’s a very short-sighted reaction that will probably end up hurting him himself. This is not an adult reaction,” says Kaczyński in a phone interview from Warsaw.

The official ones based on their words and actions, the Polish government has thoroughly pissed off the Ukrainian president to Volodymyr Zelensky at the UN on Tuesday about speech.

Without mentioning Poland or other countries by name, Zelenskyi stated that “some in Europe” are engaged in “political theater” regarding Ukrainian grain and end up helping Russia by doing so.

Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have defied the decision of the EU Commission, according to which the previously imposed ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to five Eastern European countries was to expire at the end of last week.

After Zelensky’s speech at the UN, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs held an interview with the Ukrainian ambassador in Warsaw. In addition, the country threatened Ukraine with new measures.

“I am warning the Ukrainian authorities. If they want to escalate the conflict in this way, we will place more products under the import ban”, Prime Minister Morawiecki stated In an interview with the Polsat channel on Wednesday.

of the Geremek Foundation Kaczyński says that the PiS party uses the grain card to keep rural residents happy, who have traditionally voted for the party the most diligently.

Ukraine’s cheaper grain really distorted the price of grain in Poland and other countries last year, when Ukraine had to increase land transport after the Black Sea transport routes became too dangerous. of the EU Commission by however, the price distortion has been corrected and Ukraine has promised to monitor that its grain does not cause overcapacity in transit countries in the future.

On Thursday, Ukraine and Slovakia were said to have reached an agreement in their disputes related to grain transport, news agency AFP reported. The Financial Times magazine, on the other hand toldthat Poland and Ukraine had “agreed to find a solution” to their own concerns.

According to expert Kaczyński, a clear majority of Poles are in favor of supporting Ukraine, but surveys show fatigue especially with the burden caused by the approximately one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

In a study published by the University of Warsaw in June was stated, that 28 percent of the respondents said that Poles must “absolutely” support Ukrainian refugees. Last January, half of the respondents still thought so.

In January, about half thought that Ukrainians must return to their homeland when the war eventually ends. Now 70 percent hope for that.

At the beginning of the year, 62 percent of Poles thought that Ukrainians must be supported without any conditions. In June, only 42 percent of the people thought so.

Piotr Kaczyński says that the ruling party PiS has managed to increase its support by a few percentage points and support seems to have shifted away from the right-wing populist Confederation of Freedom and Independence (Konfederacja).

Konfederacja now has about 10 percent supportwhich according to Kaczyński comes from a motley group of voters, such as those opposed to taxes, immigration, helping Ukraine and vaccines.

Russian propaganda can accelerate such negative feelings in Poland, says Kaczyński.

“Approximately 10-15 percent of the population is exposed to Russian propaganda.”

In addition to these, according to his estimate, around 10–15 percent of the population are “irritated” by, for example, the fact that Ukrainians are thought to have easier access to, for example, health services.

The support of the PiS party, which has often clashed with the EU Commission on rule of law issues, is currently around 38 percent, which is five percentage points below the result of the 2019 election.

The government’s support is being eaten away by, for example, the increase in energy prices that annoys Poles and the perceptible weakening of purchasing power in conditions of high inflation.

The government’s worst opponent in the elections is the former president of the European Council Donald Hardly led by the pro-EU citizens’ forum, which has about 29 percent support in polls.

The Reuters news agency stated at the end of August that it is the far-right Konfederacja that may emerge as the kingmaker in the elections. If it succeeds well, the two main power blocs may fall short of the support needed to form a government majority.

Tight the election situation may contribute to accelerating the PiS party’s rhetoric against Ukraine, which appeals to some voters.

Prime Minister Morawiecki stated on Wednesday that Ukraine should remember that Poland was the first country to help it when Russia launched its major offensive. We would now like Ukraine to understand that Poland wants to take care of its own farmers, he said.

President of Poland Andrzej Duda had spoken to reporters on Tuesday in the same tone on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York: “Ukraine would do well to remember that it receives help from us. And remember that we are a transit country also in the direction of Ukraine.”

Weapons, volunteer fighters and humanitarian aid have passed through Poland to Ukraine. For a large number of Ukrainian refugees, Poland has been the first stop on the way to other EU countries.

President Duda, who came to power with the support of the ruling PiS party, stated that Ukraine’s behavior is downright reckless. Earlier on Tuesday, Ukraine had announced that it would take the grain dispute with its neighbors to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for resolution.

“Ukraine behaves like a drowning person who grabs everything he sees around him. A drowning person is extremely dangerous, he can drag you into the depths. And drowns his savior,” Duda said.