To specify the delays was the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco
The PNRR puts Draghi and Meloni on opposite sides and it is the first time since the vote. The outgoing premier presented the new report on the state of implementation of the plan to ministers, claiming that “in the first half of 2022, Italy has once again achieved all the objectives” and “there are no delays in implementation”. Shortly before, however, the agencies had beaten a launch in which Meloni, speaking to the national executive of FdI, said the opposite: “We inherit a difficult situation: the delays of the PNRR are evident and difficult to recover and we are aware that it will be a lack that it does not depend on us but that it will also be attributed to us by those who determined it ”.
To specify the delays was the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco. Which in the Update to the Def explains how “the amount of resources actually spent on the projects of the NRP during this year will be lower than the projections presented in the Def”.
The initial timeline presented in Brussels provided for the grounding of 13.8 billion between 2020 and 2021 and 27.6 billion this year. In the Economic and Financial Document, the figures had already been revised downwards. Then during the summer the situation worsened further: of the total 41.4 billion that we should have used, according to Nadef, we will be able to spend only 20.5 billion. The goal. In short, 20 billion are missing that could have contributed to GDP growth after the collapse of the pandemic year. A “setback”, admits the document, which attributes the delays to the “times of adaptation to the innovative procedures of the NRP” and to the “effects of the surge in the costs of public works” that have sent several tenders deserted.
Why does Draghi say he is “fully satisfied”? All the objectives and targets set at the end of each semester have so far been met and have allowed Italy to collect the expected installments. After the 24.9 billion in pre-financing, the first installment of 21 billion arrived in April and the second is about to be disbursed. But the “milestones” that the Commission has assessed so far are qualitative: bills, implementing decrees and regulations to be approved, reports to be written, tenders to be awarded. Only in the next few years will control over compliance with the quantitative targets be triggered. That is the actual “grounding” of resources. And on that front we are in very bad shape. The track record, to date, is worrying. So much so that the Treasury, in light of the delays, had to postpone the expenditure forecasts, writing that in 2023 – under the direction of the next government – public administrations will have to be able to land the beauty of 25.9 billion worth of investments. on the Pnrr. This year the figure stopped at 9.5.
Draghi is aware of this. It is no coincidence that, after having told the ministers that the arrival of resources depends “on the achievement of objectives and goals, and nothing else”, he added that “the first phase, dedicated above all to the design and approval reforms, it is running out ”. And “in the coming months and years it is necessary to implement these reforms on the ground, continuously monitoring progress towards achieving the quantitative objectives indicated in the NRP“.
“It is now necessary to ensure that the investments are completed on time and in the manner foreseen, ensuring that European resources are spent in a transparent and honest way”. In short: if it does not go like this, the responsibility will lie with those who come later. It’s still: “It is up to the next government to continue the implementation work, and I am sure it will be done with the same force and effectiveness“. This is why Meloni dropped the veil, denying this reading and warning that the “difficult situation” is on the contrary a legacy to be managed.
That legacy will make it essential to negotiate with the Commission some adjustments to the plan or an extension of the time schedule, also hoped for by the Portugal. After the agreement reached on Tuesday by the finance ministers, the future executive will also have the possibility of adding a new RePower Eu chapter to the plan with interventions aimed at reducing dependence on Russian gas. There would be up to 2.7 billion available, the highest figure (on a par with Poland) among those foreseen for the various member countries.
Moody’s: Italy downgrade possible without Pnrr reforms
Moody’s could proceed with a downgrade of Italy’s rating, left unchanged last Friday to a negative Baa3 in a day after the political elections, if the country fails to achieve the reforms contained among the objectives of the NRP. The rating agency specifies in its report that the cut could take place: “If we were to foresee a significant weakening of the country’s medium-term growth prospects, perhaps due to the failure to implement growth-promoting reforms, including those envisaged by the NRP “. While Moody’s assessment could also improve, the text reads, “if Italian institutions, growth prospects and the debt trajectory prove resilient to the risks deriving from political uncertainty, energy security and rising costs of financing”.
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