Parliamentary elections | The value map reveals: Finnish politics is more clearly divided into blocs

In Finnish in the party system, the division into left-wing and right-wing blocs is becoming more and more clear, says the professor of political science at the University of Tampere Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen.

“On the left are the Sdp, the Greens and the Left Alliance, who are competing for voters who move along the borders. On the other side, we have a right-wing bloc: basic Finns, the coalition and the center,” Kestilä-Kekkonen says of the value map made based on Helsingin Sanomat’s election machine. The candidates of the parties have been placed on it based on how they have answered the value questions of the election machine.

HS reformed election Compass in its current form tells more clearly than before about the worlds of values ​​of the parliamentary election candidates. The voting machine measures even more strongly, for example, how the respondent views taxation, the environment, Finland’s national interest and multiculturalism.

Below the average position of the candidates from each party is marked on the value map. Both the parties that have representatives in the current parliament and minor parties outside the parliament are included.

The higher the party’s square is, the more nationally conservative its candidates are on average, and the lower it is, the more liberal-green their values ​​are. The horizontal axis shows how far to the right or left the candidates are in their economic political thinking.

Median means the middle number in order of magnitude.

The election machine due to the reform, the positions of this spring’s candidates on the value map cannot be directly compared to previous years. Kestilä-Kekkonen and a researcher from the University of Helsinki who was involved in the drafting of the election machine Veikko Isotalo however, state that the value maps of the parties adapt very much to the shifts that have been observed in the electorate in the parliamentary election surveys.

According to the researchers, one of the clearest shifts found in the studies is that the Greens have grouped more clearly to the left. Also in the value maps, the candidates of the Greens are almost as far to the left as the candidates of the Social Democrats in terms of economic policy.

According to Kestilä-Kekkonen, the economic policy position of the Greens is interesting especially because a lot of economic policy has been discussed during the elections.

“In the 2019 elections, climate and immigration, among other things, actually dominated the election debate, which especially favored the Greens and basic Finns. Now that the agenda of the elections is so focused on the economy, we have already seen the movement that the Greens will probably lose votes to the Sdp.”

According to Isotalo, the Left Alliance has also moved even more to the left and in a more value-liberal direction.

“Although of course the Left Alliance emphasizes the left-right dimension, strong liberal values ​​have also been important to them,” he says.

Below the available maps show the location of the candidates who responded to each party’s election machine. The maps depict all party candidates as points on a square. In addition, the median of the party and the ranking of the chairman are marked on the map.

Second According to studies, a clear but opposite change has occurred in basic Finns. Also on the value map, the Basic Finns are clearly on the right in terms of economic policy.

“For basic Finns, a trend common to European populist parties has happened, where the party has taken clear strides to the right,” Isotalo says.

“Whereas in 2011 the popularity of basic Finns relied more on the fact that votes flowed from the Sdp to basic Finns, now there is a competition between basic Finns, the coalition and the center,” he continues.

Value map tells what kind of values ​​the party’s candidates have based on the election machine. The location on the map is determined based on the value questions of the election machine. They deal with e.g. the left-right divide, socio-cultural values ​​and the rural-urban divide.

The form of the value map is a four-field commonly used in political research, where the horizontal axis shows the placement of the party’s candidates on the left-right line and the vertical axis on the national-conservative-liberal-green line.

The latter segment is based on a socio-cultural model known in political research as gal–tan.

Gal is short for English words green, alternative and libertarian i.e. green, alternative and emphasizing individual freedom. Tan again comes from words traditional, authoritarian and nationalist i.e. traditional, authoritarian and nationalist.

Read more: HS opens the algorithm of the election machine for all to see

Read more: How do the candidates rank on the value map, and you? The value questions of HS’s election machine were renewed

There where in terms of economic politics the parties seem to group clearly on the left-right axis, the vertical axis depicting gal-tan values ​​shows a lot of dispersion, especially on the right side.

In Kestilä-Kekkonen’s opinion, the most interesting feature of the value maps is especially the division of the coalition and the center along the national conservative-liberal green axis, although there have been indications of this in the research before.

“Some of the conservative coalition and centrist candidates are closer to the Basic Finns candidates, especially because the Basic Finns are so far to the right in terms of economic policy.”

In particular, according to the researchers, conservative and liberal wings are clearly visible in the coalition.

Isotalo points out that the coalition has not had much of a challenger on the liberal right after the Greens moved to the left, which is why the party has not had to hold on to the voters of the liberal wing. Although the Rkp is also partly on the liberal right, the language issue is such a strong part of the party’s identity that, according to Isotalo, it is not a contender for the coalition.

“The coalition’s liberal voters have practically had no other choice. The coalition only has something to lose on the national conservative side in the direction of basic Finns.”

Read more: The coalition’s internal investigation reveals a tough struggle with basic Finns – Kokoumuslähde: Blue Green was wishful thinking

There where you can see dispersion on the right, the upper left corner is quite empty in the value maps. Kestilä-Kekkonen estimates that there is not enough demand for left-wing conservative values ​​in the electorate.

“After all, we have small parties that, in principle, fit in the upper left corner, but they do poorly in elections.”

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In the value maps, the upper left corner is quite empty.

Kestilä-Kekkonen compares the situation to the turn of the 21st century, when it was seen that there was a demand for a right-wing conservative party, even though there was none yet.

“We talked about the blind spot of representation. But through demand, parties started to emerge, and we got strong, successful populist parties, which are positioned in the right-wing conservative corner.”

Another reason for the lack of left-wing conservatism, according to Kestilä-Kekkonen, is the nature of left-wing economic policy.

“Leftist economic policy includes the idea of ​​strong equality and taking care of the weaker sections. Liberal values, such as the equality of gender and sexual minorities, immigrants and other population groups, are very suitable for that.”

There has also been a different kind of development outside of Finland. For example, the Social Democratic Party of Denmark has shaped its immigration positions in a considerably more nationally conservative direction.

According to Isotalo, it is unlikely that something similar would happen in Finland.

“I don’t see the Sdp changing its position to be more conservative, especially when the party is struggling with its current values ​​to win the election. After all, the study is very strongly of the opinion that it is not worth it for the social democratic parties to compete with the radical right in the core themes of the radical right.”

What should the voter think about the dissolution of the parties?

According to Isotalo, the spread of candidates over a wide area on the value map can bring more risks to the voter. For example, if you vote for the conservative candidate of a party with divided values, you also vote for the party’s liberal candidates.

“If there is a lot of fragmentation in the list of candidates, it can be difficult from the voter’s point of view to know what kind of candidates their vote will possibly get elected. On the other hand, you can think about what is important to you – is it the party’s economic policy or rather cultural values.”

Kestilä-Kekkonen reminds that, however, party discipline generally applies in parliament. This means that all MPs usually vote on issues in the parliamentary group in a common way agreed in advance. In particular, the lines of the ruling parties are expected to hold.

“When thinking about which party to vote for, you should look at the party’s values ​​and familiarize yourself with the party’s central policies. That is, if your own candidate were to be elected, how would he possibly have to vote in parliament anyway?”

Kestilä-Kekkonen states that although the gal–tan scale is a good summary of the meanings of the socio-cultural values ​​of politics, there are actually more dividing lines in politics. In the square, for example, the regional political dividing line that is especially important to the center, the language policy that is central to Rkp, and the attitude towards the European Union are left aside.

“The quadruple field is a very good and commonly used model. However, every political system also includes the other issues that strongly divide the parties.”