Israel’s history has often been a history of conflict. A partial list includes the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that followed the birth of Israel; the Israeli-British-French attempt in 1956 to seize the Suez Canal and overthrow Egypt’s Arab nationalist leader; the Six Day War of 1967; the Yom Kippur War of 1973 and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. There are also the two Palestinian intifadas and numerous minor conflicts.
To that list we must now add the invasion of Israel by Hamas in October 2023. Thousands of short-range rockets were launched from Gaza, controlled by Hamas, against towns and cities in Israel. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Hamas fighters crossed into Israel by breaking through, flying over, or sailing around defensive barriers. The human cost of these attacks is enormous and increasing. More than 1,300 Israelis have lost their lives and several thousand have been injured. More than two hundred Israelis attending a concert were murdered in cold blood. And between 130 and 200 were kidnapped. Terror: high intentional harm against innocent people by a non-state actor on a large scale.
The Hamas attackers brought the hostages to Gaza for two reasons: to limit Israel’s freedom of action and to exchange them for Hamas militants detained in Israeli jails. Today it is not clear if that is going to work for them or the final fate of those people.
(Also read: WHO warns that evacuating patients from hospitals in Gaza is a ‘death sentence’).
Deterrence was broken
The attack was a colossal failure of Israeli intelligence. The explanation is not so much a lack of warning signs as a lack of attention. As in 1973, complacency and underestimating the opponent proved to be dangerous attitudes. It was also a defensive failure. Deterrence was broken. Costly physical barriers were overcome and Israeli military preparedness and troop levels proved woefully inadequate, possibly because attention had shifted to protecting settlers in the occupied West Bank. There will surely be official and independent inquiries into what happened.
Why Hamas attacked remains a topic of debate. The most likely explanation is that Hamas wanted to demonstrate that only they – not the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank or Arab governments – are capable and willing to protect Palestinian interests.
The moment of the attack is another question. The date may have been chosen to coincide with the last successful surprise attack against Israel, carried out by Egypt and Syria almost 50 years ago. But planning and training for the attack took place over months, suggesting a strategic purpose not tied to a specific event. The timing may have been motivated by a desire to disrupt the growing momentum in negotiations to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something that Iran, Hamas’s main sponsor, strongly opposes. It is also possible that Hamas has tried to take advantage of the strong tension and political division that exists in Israel today. Or all of the above.
(Also: How to help the victims of the conflict between Israel and Hamas from a distance?).
Sooner or later “it will be necessary to introduce a diplomatic element into
the equation and
a credible Israeli plan to
create a viable Palestinian state.”
The point is that Israel now faces an acute dilemma of multiple variables, all very complex. She wants to deal a decisive blow to Hamas, both to weaken the organization militarily and to discourage future attacks, as well as Iranian support for this group. But it must achieve this without provoking Hezbollah, which has some 150,000 rockets in Lebanon that could reach much of Israel, ending up getting involved in the conflict. Nor does he want the war to spread to the West Bank. But it will be difficult to restore meaningful deterrence without expanding the war.
Additionally, Israel’s military options are limited. The hostages are one of the reasons. Furthermore, occupying Gaza – or, more precisely, reoccupying it – would be a nightmare. There are few military undertakings more difficult than urban warfare, and Gaza is one of the most densely populated urban environments in the world. Many Israeli soldiers would be killed or captured in such an operation.
The airstrikes will inevitably kill or injure a significant number of innocent Gazans (at press time the Palestinian death toll has reached 2,200), causing international sympathy and support for Israel to wane. And in the long run, cutting off food, water, fuel and electricity to Gaza to weaken Hamas will also be counterproductive. Regional and international pressure to achieve a ceasefire will increase.
Objective in doubt
In addition, there are doubts about the real possibilities of the central strategic objective of the entire ongoing Israeli military operation. Hamas cannot be eliminated, because it represents both an ideology and an organization. Efforts to destroy it risk generating more support for them. Which brings to mind the famous question posed by the then Secretary of Defense of the United States, Donald Rumsfeld, who, speaking on the subject of drone attacks against suspected terrorists, which sometimes killed innocent people, asked : “Aren’t we creating more terrorists than we are killing?”
All of the above leads me to propose that, while there must be a military component to Israel’s response to its security challenge, including the reconstitution of Israel’s ability to defend itself from terrorist and other attacks, the true response to this problem is not exclusively military. A diplomatic element will need to be introduced into the equation, including a credible Israeli plan to create a viable Palestinian state.
(Continue with: How Putin can benefit from the war between Israel and Hamas.)
There is an American saying that ‘you can’t beat something with nothing.’ Rewarding Palestinians willing to reject violence and reach an agreement with Israel remains the best way to marginalize Hamas.
RICHARD HAASS
PRESIDENT EMERITUS OF THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS, A UNITED STATES ‘THINK TANK’ SPECIALIZED IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
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