Hundreds of pro-coup military junta protesters gathered in Niamey, the capital of Niger, on August 11, criticizing the announcement by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to activate its reserve forces for a possible military intervention. in the country. The military junta that removed President Mohamed Bazoum from power has not given an official response, but diplomatic sources warned of the possibility that Bazoum could be killed in the event of a military intervention.
“Down with France”, “Down with Cedeao”, are some of the signs that could be read on Friday, August 11, in Niamey, in the protest that brought together hundreds of pro-junta Nigerians in front of a French military base. They oppose the argument of the Economic Community of West African States (Cedeao), which justifies its mediation in the crisis and an eventual military intervention to restore democracy, alleging that a dictatorship would have negative consequences for the entire region.
Protesters accuse the regional organization of being out of touch with reality on the ground. “It is our problem, not theirs. They don’t even know the reason for the coup (d’état) in Niger,” a resident of the capital told AP.
Cedeao had set an ultimatum on Sunday August 6 for the military junta after the coup to reinstate the democratically elected president Mohamed Bazoum. When this was not fulfilled, the organization called an emergency summit on Thursday, August 10, in which the call to the reserve forces was announced.
The option of an eventual military intervention is on the table, although the Cedeao leaders announced that they would continue to favor dialogue. The heads of the Military Forces of the member countries are expected to meet in the coming days.
The military junta, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has resisted dialogue with the regional organization, has declared that it does a better job than Mohamed Bazoum in the fight against jihadist violence and has fueled anti-French sentiment among the population.
The positions within Niger are not unanimous: an internal pro-democracy political movement aligned itself with the ECOWAS decisions. On Friday they declared that they would be willing to contribute if the option of military intervention is finally taken.
On the other hand, one of the protesters told Reuters: “I am here to demand the departure of the French Forces. We are free and we have the right to demand what is beneficial for our country”.
The images on Friday are reminiscent of those that followed the military coups in Mali (2020) and Burkina Faso (2022), which ended the French military presence, a former colonial power in the region.
France is not the only country with a military base in Niger. The United States, Germany and Italy have also maintained bases and alliances with the country as a strategy to fight local affiliates of al-Qaeda and the self-styled Islamic State. Jihadist violence has caused thousands of victims and displaced millions of people across the Sahel.
On the other hand, uncertainty prevails about the international repercussions of the internal conflict in Niger. Analysts interviewed by Reuters explain that, regarding the ECOWAS reserve force, it is not possible to know how long it would take to assemble, how big it would be, or whether or not it would make the decision to intervene to restore the president. The time it takes to assemble it could leave the door open for negotiations, they detailed. In parallel, an analyst interviewed by AP estimates that ECOWAS could gather 5,000 troops, led by Nigeria.
At the moment, the only country that has firmly declared its participation in the reserve force is Côte d’Ivoire. “Ivory Coast will provide a battalion and has made all the financial adjustments. We are determined to restore Bazoum in his position. Our goal is peace and stability in the region,” President Ouattara said on national television.
Concern for the life of ousted President Bazoum
The military junta that took command in Niger has not responded to calls for dialogue from the international community and put together a new government hours before the ECOWAS emergency summit on Friday.
Hours before the announcement to activate the reserve forces, two senior diplomatic sources told AP that the military junta had threatened to assassinate the president if neighboring countries decided to carry out an armed intervention.
The diplomatic sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, explained that the threat was passed on to US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland when she visited the country earlier this week.
The ruling military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have threatened to ally with that of Niger, in the event of an armed conflict with ECOWAS.
“The threat to kill Bazoum is grim,” Alexander Thurston, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, told the AP. “Until now there have been unwritten rules on how to treat presidents after coups, and violence against Bazoum would evoke some of the worst coups of the past,” he explained.
Mohamed Bazoum and his family are currently being held at their residence. His living conditions are “rapidly deteriorating”, according to the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk.
The ousted president told Human Rights Watch that the treatment of him and his family was “inhumane and cruel.” They have not had electricity for ten days and the entry of supplies into the house is prohibited, including the medicines that the president’s son needs.
It is not known what effects the threat will have for ECOWAS, “the situation is entering uncharted territory,” analysts told AP.
The African Union will support ECOWAS decisions
The African Union declared that it will support the decisions of ECOWAS, which calls on the international community to save Bazoum’s life, and urges the military junta to “stop the escalation of the conflict with the regional bloc.”
The African Union is a political organization that brings together 55 African States to promote international cooperation within the framework of the UN. It entered into force in 2002. ECOWAS has existed since 1975 and one of its main objectives is to promote the economic integration of the region. It has 15 members, including Niger.
The African Union is expected to meet on August 14 to discuss in depth its position on the crisis in Niger. The European Union has already declared that it will support ECOWAS decisions.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday, August 10, that his country appreciated “the determination of ECOWAS to explore all options for the peaceful resolution of the crisis” and that he will hold the military junta responsible for the security of President Mohamed Bazoum. The senior official did not clarify the position of the United States regarding a possible military intervention.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, whose influence is strong and growing in the region, said he supported ECOWAS mediation efforts but warned against a military operation in Niger as it would destabilize the country and the whole of the region.
This is the seventh coup in Central and West Africa in the last three years.
With AP and Reuters
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