Just like 12 months ago, the Ricardo Tormo circuit in Valencia will decide the fate of the MotoGP World Championship. And just like in 2022, the reigning world champion Pecco Bagnaia arrives with the task of trying to defend his leadership. What changes is the opponent: last year he had to deal with Fabio Quartararo’s Yamaha, while this time between him and the second world champion is Jorge Martin’s other Ducati.
If in Qatar Pecco had problems with a defective rear tire in the Sprint won by “Martinator”, on Sunday bad luck hit the Spanish driver, who had the same problem in a long race in which he was condemned to finish tenth, while his rival for the title finished second, behind a super Fabio Di Giannantonio, who achieved his first success in the premier class.
The Prima Pramac Racing rider’s setback has put his title chances at risk, as he now trails Pecco by 21 points in the general classification. The Turin native will therefore arrive in Valencia in a favorable position. Let’s take a look at his chances of becoming champion, which could happen as early as Saturday, in the Sprint, although Martin will certainly give his all to at least try to postpone all the talk until Sunday.
Given the fairly large difference in points, Bagnaia has a double chance to take home the 2023 title: he will be champion if he gets at least four points more than Martin in Saturday’s Sprint. In case he doesn’t succeed, to be sure of partying regardless of his rival’s result, Pecco needs to score a total of 16 points over the weekend.
In light of this, there are six combinations that would allow him to close the game on Saturday and then experience a peaceful Sunday:
– Sprint wins and Martin finishes third or worse
– Finishes second in the Sprint and Martin finishes fifth or worse
– Finishes third in the Sprint and Martin finishes seventh or worse
– Finishes fourth in the Sprint and Martin finishes eighth or worse
– Finishes fifth in the Sprint and Martin finishes ninth or worse
– Finishes sixth in the Sprint and Martin finishes tenth or worse
In any case, even if the Sprint race goes particularly badly and he doesn’t score any points, Bagnaia has the certainty that if he finishes in the first three places in the long race on Sunday he will mathematically be champion, regardless of Martin’s result.
If you look at things from the Spaniard’s point of view, however, to dramatically overturn the predictions he would have to score 22 points more than the current leader, given that in the event of an even finish the Italian would be the one to come out on top thanks to the greater number of victories. It’s clear that with 37 points up for grabs in total, it’s almost mandatory for him to score a double and hope for a particularly bad weekend for his rival.
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