After the radical change of the mortgage offer last year due to the rapid rise in interest rates, for this 2023 a showcase is expected also at the mercy of the evolution of the Euribor, which is expected to continue rising without ruling out that it reaches 4%. Thus, getting a mortgage in the new year will be more expensive, although the general forecast points to a more stable situation than in 2022. “The bulk of the upward movement has already occurred and there will be a lesser degree of volatility in the financing rates for housing offered by the bank ”, they assure from Ibercaja. Experts predict that fixed mortgages will continue to become more expensive, but in a more moderate way, and that the variables will be even more competitive to offset the rise in the Euribor and encourage its hiring. And they agree that mixed mortgages will gain prominence.
“Mortgage adjustments will continue, but with less intensity,” they assert in the HelpMyCash comparator. They believe that subsidized 30-year fixed mortgages could be in a range of between 4% and 4.75%, although interest rates of 5% are already seen in the market. “There is no ceiling and everything will depend on the commercial policy of the banks,” they point out. Now, most entities place fixed rates above 3% APR.
Javier Sánchez, head of mortgages at MyInvestor, expects that “fixed-rate mortgages will increasingly move to levels above 5% APR and that banks will continue to be very aggressive in their offer of variable-rate mortgages, even offering differentials of 0.50% over the Euribor with a high level of linkage”. For his part, Luis Marquet, from Deutsche Bank Spain, believes that “the variable mortgage will be the most widely used in 2023 with more attractive rates for the most profitable customers.”
The Improving Variable Mortgage Spreads, which in a few months have gone from 1% on average to around 0.6%, could reach 0.40%, according to HelpMyCash, where they warn that variable loans, being directly linked to the Euribor, will become more expensive with each revision . “A Euribor between 3.5% and 4% is foreseeable in 2023,” says Olivia Feldman, co-founder of the comparator. Bankinter’s new forecasts point to 4%, while Marquet estimates that it will be around 3% to 4% and Simone Colombelli, from iAhorro, thinks that “it will stabilize around 3%.”
In this context, fixed mortgages will presumably lose weight, a trend that is already beginning to be reflected in the Statistics data. If a few months ago they exceeded 70% of the total mortgages constituted, now they reach 66.8%. “They will continue to drop as the last months of 2022 and the first months of 2023 are counted,” says Rafael Moral, from the fintech Hipoo, who indicates that variable-rate mortgages are gradually becoming established and will be even cheaper. “We do not observe the suspicion that there was a few months ago towards this type of interest in particular. People are starting to assume that the floating rate is competitive again under the circumstances.” José Manuel Fernández, deputy director of the Unión de Créditos Inmobiliarios (UCI) predicts, for his part, “the end of the supremacy of fixed rates, since this type of product will cease to be attractive to the consumer.”
On the other hand, there is every time greater interest for the reappeared mixed mortgage, which is characterized by combining a fixed rate during the first stage of the loan and a variable rate during the final stage. Openbank, Banco Santander, Ibercaja, ING, Bankinter or EVO have already included it in their catalogue. “Having a safe short-term period where an imminent fluctuation of the Euribor does not affect transmits security to the mortgaged party,” says Moral. “Its relevance will depend fundamentally on how customers receive it. It is likely that the rate of the fixed tranche will increase in the coming months, although in no case to the level of traditional fixed mortgages”, they venture in HelpMyCash. In iAhorro they anticipate that the mixed mortgage will double the current installment.
Current bid
No fixed loan is already lower than 3% APR. among the cheapest that of Evo Banco and Imagin at 25 years stands out at 3.13% APR and 3.17% APR, respectively. In the case of the mobile entity of CaixaBank, it is only necessary to direct deposit the salary. Openbank offers 3.24% APR for up to 15 years, with the possibility of reducing interest by 0.10% if more than 150,000 euros are financed. In addition to payroll and insurance, it requires a pension plan, use of cards and contracting energy services with Repsol. Coinc offers 3.52% at 10 years without additional products and Ibercaja sells 3.70% APR at 25 years with many conditions.
This same week, BBVA has raised the subsidized fixed rate to 3.73% APR at 15 years. Also CaixaBank, up to 4.749% APR for the same term. MyInvestor has raised it to 3.91% APR at 30 years without linkage. At Bankinter, fixed interest slightly exceeds 4%. Banco Sabadell announces a 4.40% APR and Santander, a 4.49% APR. In Abanca, the fixed mortgage reaches 5.88% APR and in Triodos Bank the APR is close to 6% for homes with a G energy certificate. “The fixed mortgage for good profiles will be around 3% and 3.5% for medium profiles ”, comments Colombelli, from iAhorro.
Among the variable mortgages, there are already two offers with differentials of 0.50% APR: that of Evo Banco and Unicaja. Both have an initial interest rate of 0.99% the first year and require, among other things, direct deposit of the payroll, which in the case of Unicaja must be at least 2,500 euros net per month. Kutxabank offers 0.53%, although the starting rate is higher, 2.15%, and the salary must be at least 3,000 euros. ING proposes in the best of cases 0.59% on the Euribor from the second year. Since last September, the orange entity adjusts prices to the personal circumstances of customers, who can simulate the conditions of their loan on the web. BBVA puts on the table a differential of 0.60% APR after 1.49% the first year. As in Evo Banco and ING, the entity headed by Onur Genç requires a salary of at least 600 euros per month.
Other attractive spreads are those offered by Targobank, at 0.65%, or Ibercaja, at 0.69%. Also Openbank (0.70%), Bankinter and Coinc (0.75%), Pibank (0.78%) or MyInvestor (0.89%). The initial fixed rates and the required linkage vary.
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