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The West must not continue to fall for Putin's bluff, demands an analyst. Robust defense instead of appeasement policy: This gives the chance to stop the Kremlin chief's war.
Kiev – Russian President Vladimir Putin is aware that Moscow cannot start a war with the NATO defense alliance, believes military analyst Sean Bell. Because Russia is no match for NATO. Nevertheless, the Kremlin repeatedly threatens this, including the possible use of nuclear weapons. The West should finally see through the Kremlin chief's bluff, Bell demands in an article for Sky News on Sunday. As a strategy, the analyst suggests, among other things, a no-fly zone over Ukraine. An idea that is as old as the Ukraine war itself – and has long been considered discarded by experts.
Robust defense against Russia: Analyst names strategy to strengthen Ukraine
Russia's threats are resonating with “nervous Western leaders,” military analyst Sean Bell said in Sunday's post. “Ultimately, tyrants like Putin only respect strength and determination.” If the West doesn’t move from its policy of appeasement to a robust defense of Ukraine, “then why should Putin stop?” Bell asks rhetorically. According to his analysis, the Russian Air Force was only able to assert itself with difficulty against a Western-based, smaller and less powerful Ukrainian Air Force.
Already at the beginning of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Bell brings up this old idea again: “If the West were to impose a no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine, this would pose a huge threat to Russia’s military advance and shift the balance of power in Ukraine’s favor.” Russia cannot escalate risk because its military has been decimated and nuclear weapons are only a credible option if “Russia itself is threatened,” says Bell. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg firmly rejected Kiev's demand for a no-fly zone.
Why a no-fly zone is not an option in the Ukraine war: assessment by military experts
The idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine has already been discussed in detail. The majority of military experts agree: This is not an option. Anyone who calls for a no-fly zone must also enforce it. This would result in the West directly entering the war and expanding the conflict and would thus “lead to a third world war,” warned former NATO general Erhard Bühler in his podcast “What to do, Mr. General?” in March 2022 .
However, the West's top priority is not to become a warring party. Former brigadier general and former advisor to Angela Merkel, Erich Vad, shares this assessment.
No-fly zone in Ukraine war: “Using lethal force against Russian aircraft”
A no-fly zone must be controlled and monitored and there must be a willingness to shoot down Russian planes. “That would effectively be an entry into war,” Vad told dem Deutschlandfunk in March 2022. The US war experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also came to this conclusion. “The establishment of a no-fly zone in Ukraine would require NATO’s willingness to use lethal force against Russian aircraft and thus effectively enter the war in Ukraine’s place,” the ISW said.Report in March 2022.
Instead, the West continues to rely on arms deliveries, even if support has recently waned. However, France announced on Sunday that it would deliver “hundreds” of wheeled tanks and new artillery ammunition is finally on the way. However, everything stands or falls with the support of the USA. The US Congress wants to discuss military support for Ukraine again in April. Moscow decided on Sunday to mobilize more conscripts for basic military service.
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