Polls in Argentina show the Argentine minister ahead or technically tied; election will be on November 19th
Two weeks before the 2nd round of the election for the Presidency of Argentina, 4 voting intention surveys indicate an undefined scenario for the election on November 19, but with Sergio Massa at an advantage.
The current Economy Minister, from the left-wing coalition Unión por la Pátria, leads in 2 polls, while there is a technical tie with the right-wing candidate, Javier Milei, in two other polls. Massa was ahead in the 1st round on October 22, with 36.68% of valid votes, against Milei’s 29.98%.
In the survey carried out by CB Consultora, Milei, who represents the right-wing coalition La Libertad Avanza, has 50.7% of voting intentions in the 2nd round, against 49.3% for Peronist Sergio Massa. Both are technically tied.
Among those who voted for Patricia Bullrich in the 1st round, 46% said they would vote for Milei, while only 14% responded that they would support Massa
The survey interviewed 1,715 Argentines on October 23 and 24, 2023 and has a confidence level of 95%. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. Here’s the complete (PDF – 810 kB, in English).
In two other surveys carried out after the 1st round, the Peronist appears to be leading voting intentions with up to 10 percentage points against the libertarian.
In a dispute against Javier Milei, the government representative has 42.4% of voting intentions against 34.3% for the libertarian. The survey interviewed 1,954 Argentines by telephone from October 23 to 25, 2023. The survey has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of 2.4%. Here’s the complete (PDF – 2 MB, in Spanish).
According to the survey, Massa leads the preferences with the support of 1/3 of voters for Juan Schiaretti, 60% for Myriam Bregman and almost 15% for Patricia Bullrich, from the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, which came in 3rd place in the presidential vote for October, 22.
Analogias points out that the Union for the Fatherland candidate is growing among women, intermediate age groups and people with “less education”. Furthermore, 52% of those interviewed agree with the formation of a national unity government to “face Argentina’s current challenges”.
The formation of a “government of national unity” was cited by the Argentine economy minister in his speech after the victory in the election on October 22nd. The proposal targets voters from more central and right-wing spectrums who voted for candidates like Milei and Bullrich in the 1st round.
The survey indicates that Massa has 44.6% of voting intentions, against 34.2% for Milei. Data was obtained from 1,459 Argentines over the age of 16 through an online questionnaire carried out on October 23 and 24, 2023. The survey has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of 2.63%. Here’s the complete (PDF – 2 MB, in Spanish).
The Peronist candidate obtained an approval rate of 40.3%, while Milei achieved 38.9%, according to research carried out by the consultancy Projection. Regarding rejection, the numbers were 56.4% for Massa and 57.7% for the libertarian.
According to research by Zuban Córdoba published by the newspaper Clarin, Massa has 45.4% of voting intentions for the 2nd round, while Milei reaches 43.1%. With a margin of error of 2.19%, candidates are once again in dead heat. The survey was carried out with 2,000 respondents on October 28th and 29th.
The minister faces a rejection rate of 56.7%, while the right-wing deputy reaches 54.3%. Furthermore, the survey reveals that among Bullrich’s followers, 28.9% would not vote for Milei in the 2nd round, while 45% said they would support the libertarian candidate.
1ST ROUND SURVEYS
Argentina’s main electoral polls for the 1st presidential round were unable to predict the Peronist’s lead in the result that took him to the 2nd round against the coalition candidate La Libertad Avanza on October 22.
Of the 8 most recent surveys compiled by Power360 based on the La Nación newspaper’s survey aggregator, only Atlas Intel’s, carried out from October 11th to 13th using an online form, placed Massa ahead of Milei. The survey was carried out until the deadline established by Argentine electoral law, which prohibited the publication of voting intention polls from October 14th.
Surveys by research companies CB Consultora, Circuitos, Clivajes Consultores, Opinaia, DC Consultores, Proyección and Fixer Asuntos Corporativos put Milei either ahead (3) or technically tied in the margin of error (4) with Massa.
Just two weeks before the 2nd round, CB Consultora once again records a technical tie between the candidates, reflecting a scenario similar to that presented in its previous survey, released before the 1st round. On the other hand, Proyección still points to an advantage for Masa over Milei in the November 19 electoral race. Both consultants were unable to predict the victory of the Peronist candidate on October 22nd.
Economic Scenario
Argentina is the 2nd largest economy in South America and the 22nd in the world, with a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of US$632.77 billion, according to data 2022 from the World Bank. The country is also the 3rd largest trading partner for Brazilians. Brazil exported US$15.34 billion and imported US$13.10 billion from the neighboring country last year, with a balance of US$2.24 billion.
In September, Argentine annual inflation increased to 138.3% and recorded a monthly rate of 12.7%, the highest in the country in 21 years.
The interest rate, Leliq, was raised by the BCRA (Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina) to 133% in October, in an attempt to reinforce the incentive to save in pesos and control rising prices.
To the dollar reserves of the country are also down. As of August 31, the Argentine BC had US$28 billion. President Alberto Fernández started 2023 with US$44.6 billion in reserves. In the historical series, since 2011, the BCRA reached its maximum US currency reserves in 2019, with US$77.4 billion in cash. At the time, the country was governed by Mauricio Macri.
The poverty rate in the country reached 40.1% in the 1st half of 2023. In the same period last year, it was 36.5%. The increase of 3.6 percentage points represents an expected increase of 1.7 million poor people across the country.
This 40.1% is the average of the rates for the 1st quarter (38.7%) and the 2nd quarter (41.5%). The data appears in report (PDF – 893 kB, in Spanish) from Indec (acronym for National Institute of Statistics and Census) on the income of Argentines, released on September 21st. Considering the margin of error, the poverty level in the 2nd quarter in the country can vary from 40% to 43%.
The data includes 31 urban agglomerations, totaling 29 million people. If the percentages are extended to the entire population (46.2 million), including the rural population, it would be equivalent to almost 18.5 million poor people.
Indec says that 62.4% of the Argentine population received some income in the 1st half of 2023. The average in the 2nd quarter was 138.5 thousand Argentine pesos (RS 1,954 at the current exchange rate).
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