With the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president, Iran could see a moderation of its absolutist foreign policy and even an opportunity for diplomatic opening, officials and experts say.
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Pezeshkian has pledged to empower Iran’s most elite and globalist diplomats to manage his foreign agenda.
“He represents a more pragmatic and less confrontational stance abroad and at home,” said Dennis B. Ross, who was a special assistant to former President Barack Obama.
Still, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, “would go a long way toward limiting” Pezeshkian’s international agenda, Ross said.
Most of the Iranian president’s powers are limited to domestic matters. It is Khamenei who makes all major political decisions, particularly on foreign affairs and Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s foreign policy has become increasingly harsh in recent years, diplomats and analysts say. That includes solidifying alliances with other authoritarian states — and arming Russia.
Where the president can have the greatest impact internationally, analysts say, is with the diplomats he selects.
Pezeshkian has said he supports easing relations with the West with the goal of ending economic sanctions. He says he wants to foster communication with most of the world’s governments — except Israel — and has warned against placing too much emphasis on alliances with Russia and China. That’s “because then they might exploit Iran,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group.
“If we want to work on the basis of this policy, we must behave well with everyone and establish a good relationship with everyone based on dignity and interests,” Pezeshkian said in May.
A key test of Iran’s interest in diplomacy will be whether it responds to efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which is complicated by the candidacy of former President Donald J. Trump in the U.S. presidential election in November.
The deal, which was intended to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb, has largely disappeared since Trump withdrew the United States from the accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions. That led Iran to accelerate its uranium enrichment.
The war in Gaza has also heightened tensions between the United States and Iranian-backed forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Still, Iranians are aware that the United States is determined to prevent a widening of the conflict in the Middle East.
Ross said the Iranian president will have some room to maneuver in balancing “pragmatism or adherence to ideological norms set by the supreme leader.” But that will only go so far, as Khamenei has set clear boundaries with the U.S.
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