Analysts raised their projection for the 2nd week in a row; expectations for inflation fell to 3.80
Financial market analysts increased their estimate for Brazil's economic growth in 2024. The median projection went from 1.68% in the previous week to 1.75% in the current week. It was the 2nd consecutive increase in expectations. The Focus Bulletin was released this Tuesday (27.Feb.2024). Here's the complete of the report (PDF – 773 kB).
Brazil's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for 2023 will be released on Friday (1st March 2024) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). In 2022, the country grew 2.9%.
For 2025, the financial market estimates an expansion of 2% – the same percentage as the previous week.
Financial market agents reduced the projection for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) of 2024 from 3.82% to 3.80%. The predicted level is within the inflation target of 3%, which has a range of tolerance of 1.5% to 4.5%.
The previous week, the BC (Central Bank) had announced that the median estimate for inflation this year was 3.81%. This number was corrected to 3.82%. According to the monetary authority, this is a “statistics review routine”.
“In this process, some inconsistency can be identified. When this happens, the correction is made, which leads to the series being reprocessed and republished. That’s what happened with last week’s Focus”said the BC press office.
For 2025, the financial market reduced its inflation estimate from 3.52% to 3.51%. Next year's target is 3%, with the same tolerance range (1.5% to 4.5%)
Analysts did not change the estimates for the dollar exchange rate in 2024 (R$ 4.93) and 2025 (R$ 5.00) and the basic rate, the Selic, at 9% and 8.5% per year, respectively .
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