When the vote intention polls have accumulated, month after month, a clear advantage by Claudia Sheinbaum in the internal battle of Morena; when the Tabasco-Chiapas clan that has accompanied Andrés López Manuel Obrador for decades was already aligned around Adán Augusto López; when within the presidential family itself appetites for what is to come are evident… When all that happens, Marcelo Ebrard it keeps open a narrow window of attention on what its position will be in the imminent future.
It is a space that could be overwhelmed in a few weeks, after the elections in the states of Mexico and Coahuila, when everything will rush. At this juncture, the decision of the current chancellor. And everything points to a rupture, perhaps thanks to the Movimiento Ciudadano, Dante Delgado and a possible movement like those that are now shaking up politics around the world, where the traditional parties are dying.
But many do not imagine such a scenario on the part of Ebrard. They forecast him disciplined, trading for himself. Or worse, consumed by indecision. The Hamlet of 2024.
“If I have doubts about the process, I’ll go my own way,” the current foreign minister, perhaps the most established politician on the current scene, inside and outside the ruling party, has told his close friends and some of his friends. It would take much less than that to accept that he is behind in the race of those who seek the presidential candidacy within Morena.
It is unlikely that Ebrard does not assume that the process has marginalized him. His treatment with the President is of a high level, but no more than that of a collaborator of his rank. For months, perhaps years, he has been the target of a war of attacks from multimillion-dollar networks that display the fingerprints of operators at the Palace and other relevant offices, including his adversaries in the race. Mario Delgado, his former friend and political ally, has turned his back on him. Figures of the self-styled 4T have already accumulated kilometers of activism in favor of another alternative. That is true even for Ricardo Monreal, the Morenista senatorial leader who wears an apparent endorsement from the heights to head towards another route, perhaps that of Mexico City.
Dante Delgado, undoubtedly the most astute Mexican partisan leader of the moment, always carries a notebook with him with his electoral calculations, and those numbers are shaken with Ebrard in polls, where he would start at least a dozen points below Sheinbaum, and even by above Adam Augusto Lopez. The set would be impossible without a complementary structure, under a name that does not yet exist. There is a legion of figures who have come to power in their respective countries from a similar front, who are usually as effective as they are unstable.
A real option for power by Ebrard, in the face of Morena’s candidacy, would encourage the possibility that the federal Congress is renewed in a much less comfortable way for the ruling party. The same would be true for the nine governorships that will be in dispute next year, the innumerable mayors and local councils. In 2024 there will be 12 thousand positions in dispute.
A certain possibility for Ebrard would be defeat. But even that would open the question of what this character could embody over the next six years, facing a president or successor president of Morena. And in the face of the mandate that the voters define what will come out of the polls.
Notes: The scientific community, which has been under harassment for at least three years by María Elena Álvarez-Buylla, director of Conacyt, celebrated this weekend with discreet loudness the definitive protection that the Federal Judiciary granted to the emeritus researcher from UNAM Antonio Lazcano, as part of the Ruling Commission of the National System of Researchers. A large number of Dr. Lazcano’s colleagues gathered this Friday at a restaurant in Polanco, in Mexico City, where they celebrated the moral and legal slap to Mrs. Álvarez-Buylla. New setbacks are foreseen regarding the policy of persecution of the intellectual world frequently promoted from the Palace, which has had one of its crudest expressions in Conacyt. ([email protected])
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