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The Union of the Left and the presidential coalition prevailed in the first round of the legislative elections. His numerous duels in the second round and the configuration of the future National Assembly mark the return of the left-right divide in French politics.
If the presidential election had proposed in the second round a new confrontation between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen after the one experienced in 2017, the legislative elections are marked by the rebirth of a left-wing bloc opposed to the presidential alliance.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) was slightly in the lead on Sunday June 12 in the first round of the legislative elections, with 25.6% of the vote, according to an estimate by Ipsos Sopra Steria, just ahead of Ensemble!, the presidential coalition, which obtained 25.2% of the vote. Behind, the Rassemblement National obtained 19.1%, Les Républicains 13.6% and Reconquête 4.1%.
For the head of the Government, Elisabeth Borne, the presidential coalition is “the only political force capable of obtaining a majority in the National Assembly.”
A “project against project” between rounds
“I have the feeling that we have turned the tables, the left was given up for dead, we have disrupted all forecasts and we came to the head of this first round,” said the deputy of the LFI, Clémentine Autain, on TF1.
The duels between Nupes and Ensemble! in most constituencies for the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday June 19, it represents a return of the left-right divide in the French political landscape. “From now on, a second round of clarifications is opened, project against project,” commented the Delegate Minister of Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, on the set of TF1.
The increase in wages, the legal retirement age, taxation, public services, education or ecological planning, Europe: almost everything opposes Nupes and Ensemble! in terms of ideas. This is enough to provide a real debate for voters during the seven days between the two rounds.
The participation bet in the second round
For both sides, the challenge will obviously be to mobilize voters. Fewer than one in two voters went to the polls on Sunday. The abstention rate broke a new record and stood at 52.3%, according to data from Ipsos Sopra Steria. It is slightly higher than five years ago, when it reached 51.3%. The rise in turnout (26.3% abstention in the first round) observed in the presidential elections in April was short-lived.
A status quo in the second round would favor the presidential coalition. “We have a week to convince and get a strong and clear majority,” said Elisabeth Borne, the prime minister, on Sunday night. “To all of you who have abstained, I want to tell you tonight to believe in the strength of your vote and to make your voice heard next Sunday,” she added.
Nupes, for his part, will need increased mobilization to aspire to victory. Jean-Luc Mélenchon was not wrong in asking voters to “join” the second round. “I call on our people, in view of these results and the extraordinary opportunity that this represents for our personal lives and for the destiny of the common homeland, to rise up next Sunday, to definitively reject the disastrous projects of the majority of Mr. Macron. “, he pointed out.
With the return of the left-right divide, Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National risk being pushed into the background. The finalist in the presidential election considered it possible to send “a very large group” of the RN to the National Assembly, something unprecedented since 1986. However, her future group should not exceed 45 seats, according to projections by Ipsos Sopra Steria .
On the other hand, only Nupes and Ensemble! they will send several hundred deputies to the Assembly, at least 400 according to Ipsos Sopra Steria. In the absence of knowing the future winner of the second round, it is clear that the Palais Bourbon is about to experience a turnaround with the return of a large left-wing bloc against the presidential coalition.
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