The hangover from the Chilean constitutional plebiscite, in which 55% rejected the proposal promoted by the right, has opened a dispute over the hegemony of the opposition to President Gabriel Boric. The Republican Party became the main political force last May in the elections of the councilors, so the defeat in the referendum makes them the main responsible parties and Chile Vamos, the formation of the traditional right, will seek to recover the space of his electorate that the Republicans have bitten from the extreme. While the coalition debates internally about how and when to make a difference, José Antonio Kast, leader of the Republicans, confirmed his intentions to be a presidential candidate for the third time in 2025. In an interview with TVN he added that, if it were up to him , would not compete in a primary with Chile Vamos.
Kast's strategy after the results has been to recognize defeat, highlighting that Gabriel Boric's Government also has nothing to celebrate, tying the field of losers. At the same time, by being responsible for 45% of the option in favor seeks to appropriate it, a vision that clashes with that of Chile Vamos, which brings together the Independent Democratic Union (UDI), National Renewal (RN) and Evópoli parties. They believe that 45% is from the entire sector and that if it had not been for the “little pleasures” that the Republicans took in the process, such as the exemption of contributions to the first home or modifying the rule linked to reproductive rights , they would have won the plebiscite. The former presidential candidate of the traditional right, Sebastián Sichel, accused them of scaring away the moderates and of trying to put his identity in the text. “Leading is convening, not scaring or imposing,” said Sichel.
The first reactions on the right after the result of the plebiscite suggested an internal war. Former Republican councilor Luis Silva, leader of the bench during the process, maintained that Mayor Evelyn Matthei, the main presidential card of the UDI, of the traditional right, “entered late” to the campaign. Matthei assured at the end of September that the proposal was “headed to failure,” which was a shock for her sector considering that it is the highest-rated policy in Chile, according to the Cadem survey. Finally Matthei rejected the idea of voting against and ended up aligning with their ranks and becoming one of the pillars of the campaign of the in favor. He lost his option in the vast majority of Chilean municipalities, including the one he administers.
Chile Vamos has tried this week to have a more dialogic stance with the Boric Government than the Republicans, although it has not been enough for citizens to see a clear difference. Asked about the pension reform that the left-wing Administration has tried to reinitiate after the plebiscite and that has been discussed in Congress for 20 years, Kast said on TVN that “there is little left” for it to be carried out. “In two more years we are going to win the Parliament and the Presidency and we are going to demonstrate how to advance in social emergencies,” he said, slamming the door on the negotiations to resolve one of the main concerns of citizens.
The question is whether Chile Vamos will distance itself from the Republican Party in the short term or seek to remain close enough to form a strategic alliance. Several voices within the party believe that it is time to separate the waters and not ignore that the Republican leadership cost them the process. 23% of those who voted for right-wing candidates in the election of constitutional councilors marked against, according to DecideChile.
It is expected that Kast will not only face friendly fire from Chile Vamos, but also from a right-wing sector of Republicans who distanced themselves from the constitutional process. A couple of weeks ago, Senator Rojo Edwards resigned from the Republican Party because he considered that the leadership stopped focusing on social emergencies and after learning the result of the plebiscite, he stated: “There is 20% of the opposition that has supported freedom ( …) In two more years there will be a Government that defends freedom,” he added, hinting at his political ambitions.
The first electoral test that will define where the waters will go are the municipal and gubernatorial elections in October 2024, for which – if there are primaries – there must be resolutions in May. Until now, Renovación Nacional has shown its interest in having the entire opposition to the Boric Government have a single candidate in each municipality and region of the country. Gloria Hutt, president of the liberal right-wing Evópoli party, however, this week ruled out making an agreement with the Republicans. Analysts consider that Evópoli, the most moderate party on the right, is the one that is most clearly distancing itself from the extreme, but that the other parties, particularly the UDI, have it more difficult because Kast comes from that formation and has conquered part of its bases.
Chile Vamos still does not want to get into the mud of the presidential elections although, necessarily, Kast is already forcing them to do so. Analysts see a complex panorama looming in 2025, when Chileans will vote for a new president and at the same time for a new Congress. If Kast does not want to go in a primary with Chile Vamos, it would be strange if they did do so in the parliamentary elections. And even if they agreed to that, there are voices within the traditional right that are going to resist because they want to go for re-election and are not willing to leave a vacancy for a Republican to obtain.
For now, the Republican Party returned to what it was before the plebiscite: a formation of 12 deputies and one senator. Congress is their court and from there they are promoting a constitutional accusation against the Minister of Housing, Carlos Montes, for his political responsibility in the Conventions case, the corruption plot that the Prosecutor's Office is investigating regarding the transfer of state funds to private foundations, especially related to the ruling party. It is one more sign that Kast and his party seek to maintain control of the Chilean opposition after the plebiscite.
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