Six years after the crisis process, and with the amnesty on what happened in those dramatic days on the table, Spanish politics experienced this Thursday a strange aroma of that critical 2017. As then, nothing happened as expected. The day started with everything ready in the PSOE to register in Congress the proposed amnesty law, which is already practically finalized for all the groups of the new majority to sign. However, as six years ago, at the last moment, and with all the means pending his steps, Carles Puigdemont tense the agreement with the PSOE while the negotiators fought over a point in the articles of the law, because Junts demands that More people will benefit from the amnesty, and not in the explanatory statement, which has already been agreed upon, according to negotiation sources.
The frenetic day of this Thursday, with a six-hour meeting in Brussels of the Junts leadership that ended in nothing, and with a lectern prepared in a hotel in the Belgian capital for an appearance by Puigdemont announcing an agreement that was finally withdrawn for the afternoon without any intervention from the former president, It reminded many of the dramatic October 26, 2017, when Puigdemont had planned to call elections and finally ended up declaring independence only to suspend it immediately afterwards, which led to the total break with the State, the declaration of 155, his flight from Spain and the judicial processes that precisely now they want to amnesty. After nine at night, Puigdemont stated from the social network X, formerly Twitterwhich justified the delay in the agreement without blowing up bridges: “We will not change the prudence and precautions that we have maintained until now no matter how hasty some are.”
As if there were few elements missing to remember those turbulent days, both the opposition and the main association of judges, the conservative APM, increased the drama with apocalyptic terms. For former president José María Aznar, Pedro Sánchez is “a danger to democracy.” For Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the PP, the president has brought Spain “to the brink of the constitutional precipice”, so much so that he accused him of “using Princess Leonor’s birthday to cover up an unworthy decision.” Meanwhile, the APM judges made a note even before knowing the amnesty law in which they believe that this text represents “the beginning of the end” of democracy, by “breaking the rules of the 1978 Constitution and flying through the “airs the rule of law.”
However, different sources involved in the negotiation point out that, despite the setback of indefinitely delaying the closing of an agreement that they had planned to seal this Thursday with everyone, they do not believe that things will end like they did then and the most likely thing is still a agreement that is very advanced and suits everyone: the PSOE and Sumar coalition because it allows it to govern, and the independentists because they will have a total amnesty and also an important package, not only economic —this Thursday the pact with ERC that implies condonation was announced. of 15,000 million euros of Catalonia’s debt with the FLA, in addition to the transfer of Renfe commuter trains—but also political, since new dialogue tables will be created and even the socialists are willing to accept a verifier as long as it is limited to the agreements between parties and not between governments.
The dimensions of the agreement, which involves many relevant issues, in addition to the amnesty, which is already a very big step for a PSOE that flatly rejected it until the last elections, makes it difficult to imagine a breakup and rather the negotiators of the two sides They pointed towards a delay that leaves Sánchez’s investiture on hold, but not his death, at least for the moment. The explanatory statement, according to negotiation sources, is already closed, and the text of the agreement with ERC indicates how the process, with ambiguous terms, so that they serve both parties: some “events that occurred between the ruling of the Statute until the referendum annulled by the TC of 2017” that “generated institutional and social tension, which was aggravated with the initiation of multiple judicial procedures ”. Words measured to be able to agree on a story of the processes which is not that of either of them.
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The fierce competition between ERC and Junts for the leadership of the independence movement has overshadowed the entire negotiation and this Thursday it reappeared with force. While Oriol Junqueras, leader of the Republicans, was in Barcelona appearing to enthusiastically announce the agreement with the PSOE, which not only guarantees the investiture, but also parliamentary stability and support for the Budgets, at exactly the same time, in a hardly coincidental way, In Brussels, the meeting of the Junts leadership was concluded without an agreement with the socialists and it was insisted that it is the Government that is in a hurry, while the independentists are in no hurry.
The agreement therefore seems ready for closing, but the decisive moment is the presentation of the pact, in which Junts wants to make it very clear that they are more demanding than ERC, which they have been criticizing for four years for being too soft with the socialists. Negotiation sources insist that the last remaining obstacle should not be insurmountable, but throughout the day the negotiators were not able to find a middle ground that would work for both. While the hours passed and the Junts leadership continued meeting in Brussels without making any progress, Félix Bolaños was in Barcelona closing the agreement with ERC and taking a photograph with Oriol Junqueras to finish off the image of the pact and in Madrid, in the socialist group in Congress, They had everything ready to register the amnesty law proposal, which is almost completely closed with the exception of that obstacle.
Puigdemont thus achieved full prominence for his resistance to the pact, in the face of a Junqueras who claimed everything achieved as a continuity of his negotiation policy of recent years, and saw how Junts’ delay left high-caliber achievements such as the forgiveness of 15,000 million euros, 20% of Catalonia’s debt with the Autonomous Liquidation Fund (FLA), the fund that was established in the midst of the financial crisis, in 2012, to save the accounts of the autonomies and town councils, which They saw their income plummet with the collapse of the economy and the bursting of the real estate bubble.
The Generalitat will save 1,300 million euros in interest thanks to this forgiveness, which is already causing a great political war by PP autonomies that feel aggrieved. The Government assures that this condonation is extendable to the other communities of the general regime, but it does not benefit everyone equally because Catalonia is the one that requested the most money from the FLA, although it will also help a lot to the Valencian Community, now in the hands of the PP, and somewhat except Andalusia, the three that requested the most. Several presidents of the PP came out in a rush to criticize this agreement because they insist that it represents a clear insult to the less indebted autonomies, that is, that the debt is rewarded.
Meanwhile, from Brussels, sources from the pro-independence party did not speak of a rupture at any time and hinted that negotiations will continue in the coming hours or days. Although Junts assures that they have not sold “any expectations”, this was very high due to the level of the event, in which Laura Borrás, Jordi Turull, Ana Erra, David Torrents, Josep Rius, Aurora Madaula and David Saldoni participated, in addition to Puigdemont and Toni Comín, who serve as MEPs in Brussels. Junts had reserved a room in case there was an agreement, which was prepared first thing in the morning with a lectern flanked by the Catalan and European flags and a panel announcing “President Carles Puigdemont conference”, in addition to having cameras ready to broadcast live. At 4:00 p.m., however, the team was dismantled, giving the first signal that was confirmed almost two hours later, when the participants in the meeting left through various doors of the hotel without giving explanations, although a Junts source did not rule out that the contacts with the PSOE continue discreetly in the coming hours.
Ultimately, there is a lack of trust, these sources point out, with the other negotiating party and the desire for everything to be “in writing” and well explained before giving the final yes. The rush is not on Junts’ side, they point out. “The PSOE feeds expectations that everything is easy and today is November 2 and here we are,” they have noted in this regard. The sources have wanted to separate the negotiations from those carried out with ERC. “We negotiate with the PSOE,” they have indicated in this regard. Junts’ resistance not only dampened the party for the Republicans, but also for the Socialists, who had everything planned to launch from Barcelona, where Bolaños and Salvador Illa appeared together, the message that “a new stage” is beginning that means “going through page” and consider the processes. Bolaños had everything ready and insisted that “the agreement with ERC brings the inauguration of Pedro Sánchez and the progressive Government closer,” but while he said it, all the eyes of the PSOE were focused on Puigdemont and the unpredictability of his movements. The shadow of 2017 is very long, but all the protagonists seem convinced that this time it will be different and Puigdemont will opt for an agreement and not a breakup. A lot of work has been done for three months to achieve that different ending. The answer will probably come in the next few hours, but even that is not certain. The maximum deadline is still marked very clearly: November 27.
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