The US Senate is close to reaching agreement on a bill to impose possible sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine.
Two prominent members of the House of Representatives told the Washington Post that the Democratic and Republican parties are close to a bill that would impose sanctions that would “crush Russia’s economy.”
And possible Western sanctions against Russia may start from individuals and extend to banking sector entities, up to the harshest sanctions that Moscow has not witnessed since the Cold War, according to Western reports.
There are about 14 potential sanctions being discussed by Western leaders for responding to Russia if it invades Ukraine.
Punishment of Putin and his team
The first possible scenario is to personally punish “Kremlin master” Vladimir Putin, his presidential team and military figures, freeze their assets and ban them from foreign banking transactions, which Joe Biden confirmed, saying he “does not rule out imposing sanctions on Putin personally.”
Here, Moscow denounced, saying that steps would harm efforts to reduce tension in the Ukraine crisis, and that Russian officials are prohibited from keeping funds abroad.
Commenting on this, the expert on Russian affairs, Ashraf Al-Sabbagh, from Moscow, says that the indicators confirm that the West is preparing a package of severe economic sanctions against the major Russian banks.
Al-Sabbagh added to “Sky News Arabia”, “But Russia may not invade Ukraine in a broad military campaign that allows the West to go to impose the maximum sanctions.”
He explains: “Moscow may resort to intensifying its military support for Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and may recognize their independence as independent republics, as it did with the secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia in 2008.”
And he added, “If things get complicated about Ukraine, Russia may announce the annexation of these two regions to its strength, as it did with the Crimea and Sevastopol.”
Russian officials denied entry
Within the package of possible sanctions, Washington and European countries may resort to preventing Russian officials and personalities from entering their territories.
This option is among the most likely options that the West hopes behind it to push the Russian elite to pressure Putin, but many of these sanctions are already in place and their behavior has not changed.
The Russian journalist and researcher, Artyom Kapchuk, said in statements to “Sky News Arabia” that “Western sanctions against Moscow are useful internally, as they may push the conservative elites inside Russia to purify the ruling structure from the influence of the liberal elites inherited from the 1990s, and this is something that the majority of Russians aspire to.”
He says, “There is no dream of Russia for a single state with Ukraine, especially after the events of 2014, and the situation is that everyone is in deep predicament, whether NATO or Russia.”
And about Putin, he adds: “Putin is not the one who decides everything, and there is no expansionist policy of Russia in the region or the ambitions of neighboring countries.”
Banning the dollar
Washington may resort to preventing Russia from dealing in US dollars, as it can impose restrictions on its use of the US currency, or punish companies that allow its Russian counterparts to do so.
The decision will restrict the movement of Russian purchases and exports around the world, and will also significantly affect its sales of oil and gas in dollars.
Isolate Russia from “Swift”
Among what is going on in the Western discussions is to isolate Moscow from the global banking communications network known as the “SWIFT” system.
This trend was realized when US senators presented, last week, a draft of new sanctions against Russia, which included this scenario.
But it is the most difficult Western option towards the Russian and international financial markets; Because it will cost the West, especially Washington and Berlin, a heavy price.
In this regard, researcher Mohamed Hamed, director of the Eastern Mediterranean Forum for Political Studies, expected the imposition of international sanctions on Russia without the “SWIFT” system.
In a statement to “Sky News Arabia”, Hamed explained that “isolating Russia from Swift, if it paralyzes the Russian gas and wheat markets, will affect Western countries.”
sovereign debt
Western powers can take measures to block Russia’s access to international debt markets.
This may deprive Russia of funds to develop its economy, and the cost of borrowing in the country may rise and the value of the ruble will fall, according to the BBC Arabic network.
Nordstream 2
It can be said that the Russian gas pipeline “Nord Stream 2” to Germany, although not operational yet, is one of the projects targeted by Western sanctions.
This scenario may be the most important sanctions, because Washington hopes to stop it permanently.
Ban Russian banks
Blacklisting Russian banks, making it impossible for anyone in the world to do business with them, is the seventh decision on the sanctions calendar.
Here, Moscow will have to rescue the banks and try to avoid high inflation and low income, but this has a significant negative impact on Western investors and depositors in those banks.
Restricting Russia’s imports
It is to prevent the export of certain goods to Russia, such as US technology, software, or equipment.
It may include micro-semiconductors used in cars, smartphones, machine tools, and consumer electronics.
Its danger lies in targeting the Russian defense and space sectors and may extend to other economic sectors.
Oil Restrictions
The Russian economy is highly dependent on gas and oil sales abroad, and the West could make it illegal to buy oil from Russian energy giants, such as Gazprom or Rosneft, according to the Voice of Germany.
Technology deprivation
A scenario that may return Russia to the Cold War era, because it is the most severe of sanctions, as it will deprive it of possessing the latest technology and may hinder its keeping pace with global technology.
The White House had already asked chip makers to prepare for new restrictions on US exports to Moscow.
besieging the ruble
An increase in the blockade of the Russian currency is also expected, as Washington previously prevented the conversion of the ruble to the dollar, which means isolating Russia from the global exchange system.
Russian bonds
Tightening existing restrictions on Russian bonds by banning participation in the secondary market, among expected penalties.
It would prevent Moscow from obtaining any funds for its future projects, which would weaken its economic growth.
Tightening existing penalties
It is possible that the US administration will tighten the sanctions currently imposed on Russia, and even demand that European partners do the same.
The current European sanctions include 185 people and 48 Russian entities, while the American ones prevent American financial institutions from buying Russian treasury bonds.
Industry, defense and aviation sectors
Western sanctions could include industry, aviation, the navy, robotics, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and the Russian Defense Ministry, according to US officials, according to Reuters news agency.
“We intend to put in place a dual strategy that includes financial penalties that lead to capital flight and inflation and to the Russian Central Bank’s move to provide banks with bailout funds so Putin feels the cost from day one,” says Peter Harrell, the White House’s national security official.