It is ''a tense relationship'' between the United States and China, the most important competition of this century that deals with ''hackers, trade sanctions and clumsy attempts at courtship''. With them ''United States that no longer have patience for Chinese ambiguity''. Thus the sinologist Francesco Sisci analyzes the relations between the two superpowers after 20 American businessmen, including managers of Blackstone and Qualcomm, were immortalized together with Xi Jinping in a historic photo-opportunity while it still echoed the fury of the Beijing government at the sanctions on Chinese citizens accused of carrying out cyber attacks against the US and the United Kingdom. According to American intelligence agencies, in fact, the malware found in critical infrastructures appears to be made specifically to be “activated” in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. So as to force Americans to worry about the security of their electricity and water networks rather than rushing to the defense of a distant island.
''Xi Jinping made an open-minded, but as always ambiguous, statement, saying that China is committed to 'comprehensive', broad-spectrum reforms. All to attract fresh capital to China which, Xi swears, has not yet reached its peak and has 'bright' growth prospects'', explains Sisci. ''The problem is that today America no longer has the patience for ambiguous phrases. For some years now, US companies have stopped investing in the country. Of course, there has not been a drastic decoupling: giants such as Apple and Tesla, large banks such as JpMorgan maintain an important presence. But no one is planning new and massive investments. If since the end of the 1970s the attitude towards Beijing has been positive and proactive, to the point of naivety, since 2011 the wind has begun to change, and the entire American system, from politics to business, from academia to civil society , has started to 'cool down' towards China,'' he adds.
In fact today the Wall Street Journal published the updated numbers: the revenues of the stars and stripes companies in China are at a standstill. Geopolitical tensions, de-risking have something to do with it, but also the weakness of the Chinese economy, which seemed unstoppable, and a newfound and perhaps unexpected American strength. ''Last year, for the first time, American finance invested more in India than in China, which recorded the lowest growth in recent decades, and is suffering from lower consumer spending, a slowdown in exports and a deep crisis real estate'', explains Sisci. ''In Beijing they realized late how much the US was changing its attitude towards them, also because until two years ago they considered the American empire to be in inexorable decline, and were focusing heavily on Russia, Brics and what they now call the Global South. Instead, Putin has revealed himself to be weak, with the failed large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin's pseudo-coup and now the terrifying security breach in the heart of Moscow. The United States, on the other hand, has shown the ability to still dominate in many sectors, especially the technological one. So Xi Jinping has understood that the G7 market is still fundamental, and he returns to court it'', he underlines.
There are many points of tension: the US will investigate the potential of Chinese electric vehicles to constitute a threat to national security, the House of Representatives voted in a bipartisan way to force Bytedance to sell Tiktok, Chinese cranes in ports are now considered a Trojan horse, sanctions and limits on the export of technology and intellectual property. On the other hand, China has just submitted an appeal to the World Trade Organization against American subsidies for electric cars, has banned the use of iPhones and Tesla cars by public employees, wants to eliminate Intel and AMD chips in computers and government servers. Lastly, hackers.
''It is indeed very serious, also because it is a concerted action by the Five Eyes, the five countries of the Anglosphere that share actions and intelligence information. One after another, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have accused Beijing of using its hackers not only for industrial espionage and massive data collection, but of wanting to subvert the democratic order. There could be major commercial consequences. How can you accept Chinese electric vehicles in your territory if you believe they are weapons aimed at you?”, asks Sisci.
And Europe? Xi Jinping will be in France in May, his first trip to the continent since 2019: since the outbreak of the pandemic, the Chinese leader has only started traveling again after three years, and in the meantime relations with European leaders have weakened. ''Macron had tried to act as an interlocutor with Putin, without success, and now he will try to do the same with the Chinese president. He knows that in this election year there is room for France, but an official visit will not be enough to re-establish a strong relationship. Typically on these trips Xi visits at least three countries. It will be interesting to understand if this time too they will be able to organize relevant meetings, and above all with whom”, concludes Sisci.
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