06/25/2024 – 18:09
Doubts about the chances of a cut in interest rates in the United States, which gave strength to the dollar, added to concerns about the fiscal scenario and repeated signs of concern from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) with the unanchoring of inflation expectations led to yet another increase in rates on Interbank Deposit (DI) contracts, mainly in the long part of the curve, more affected by the perception of risks.
Marcos Weigt, head of Treasury at Travelex Bank, mentioned that today there was a general appreciation of the dollar, particularly in comparison with emerging currencies, but that the behavior of the real was “a little worse”, which also had repercussions on the currency curve. fees.
“When you look at Brazil’s five-year rate against Mexico, in January the differential was 1.50 points higher here than there. Now, it is at 2.42, and we cut rates more than they did. This deterioration in risk is because of the tax,” she assessed.
“The market as a whole is very sensitive and awaiting some news on the fiscal side. The Central Bank’s stance last week unanimously maintaining the rate was good news, but there comes a point where more positive news is needed”, said the chief economist at Integral Group, Daniel Miraglia,
Today investors also digested the minutes of the most recent Copom meeting. In the document, the Central Bank increased its neutral real interest rate estimate, from 4.5% to 4.75%, and anticipated a review of its output gap estimate. The group pointed out that the gap went from negative territory, according to the estimate released at the end of March, to “around neutrality”.
The market initially did not react to the document, but ended up looking at the minutes more closely as the day went on, according to Filipe Arend, head of fixed income at Faz Capital. He considered that the document maintained the “tough tone” already reproduced in the statement published last Wednesday, but brought “additional elements”, particularly regarding the fiscal scenario.
“The Copom often highlighted in the previous meeting the fiscal risk, the potential this has to discourage inflation expectations, but today this was reinforced multiple times,” said Arend, adding that concerns about the external scenario also drew attention.
The DI contract rate for January 2025 rose to 10.555%, from 10.554% yesterday. The rate for January 2026 increased to 11.100% from 11.092%, while the rate for January 2027 increased to 11.475% from 11.449%. On the long end, the rate for January 2029 rose to 11.915% from 11.850%.
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