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Blockade or invasion – these are usually the scenarios for an attack on Taiwan. A new study now names a third, no less dangerous way in which China could achieve its goal.
Taiwan’s new president has been in office for a good month – a man whom the Chinese government describes as a “dangerous separatist” and whom it accuses of wanting to declare the island state independent of the People’s Republic. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has been in power for ten years, won the election in early January, despite massive attempts at intimidation from Beijing.
Shortly after Lai’s inauguration, the harsh words from Beijing were followed by more concrete threats: China’s People’s Liberation Army began two days of military maneuvers around the democratically governed island at the end of May as a “severe punishment” for Lai’s election and as a “warning” to Taiwan’s allies. A few days ago, the government in Beijing published new guidelines for Chinese courts and security agencies, calling on them to “severely punish incorrigible fighters for Taiwanese independence.” Anyone who “causes particularly serious harm to the state and the people” should be punished with death, according to the guidelines, which the state news agency Xinhua quoted. Beijing also sends fighter jets and warships near the island almost every day.
All of this is intended to intimidate the Taiwanese – but are they also harbingers of an invasion? The Chinese government’s goal is clear: Taiwan is to be annexed to China, as peacefully as possible, but also by military force if necessary.
Quarantine could cut Taiwan off from the outside world
Military analysts generally consider two possible scenarios to be likely if China decides to annex Taiwan: a large-scale invasion and a blockade of the island. Experts from the US think tank CSIS are now bringing another alternative into play: a “quarantine”. This could even lead to the US not being seen as the aggressor in the end, according to the authors of the recently published study.
Unlike a blockade, which is carried out by the military, a quarantine is “a law enforcement-led operation to control maritime or air traffic in a specific area,” according to the CSIS authors. In concrete terms, this means that China could issue new customs rules and subsequently inspect all commercial ships or tankers that want to enter or leave Taiwanese ports. “Ships belonging to the Chinese authorities would be authorized to board, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against ships that do not comply with the regulations.”
Not only could Beijing prevent American arms deliveries from reaching the island, but a long-term quarantine would also weaken the Taiwanese government and “increase political pressure on Taiwan’s leadership to negotiate with Beijing or improve relations.” In addition, a quarantine would show the international community “that Taiwan has no control over its own territory,” the study says.
If China attacks, will the US come to the aid of the Taiwanese?
Since Beijing considers the island of Taiwan to be part of its own territory, the Chinese authorities may see themselves as entitled to take such steps. And while a blockade is considered an act of war under international law, this does not apply to a quarantine, according to the study authors. What is particularly perfidious is that if the USA intervenes to end China’s quarantine measures, Beijing could view this as an act of war – so it would be Washington, not Beijing, that would be seen as the aggressor. At the same time, China’s leadership could feel encouraged to go a step further after a successful quarantine – up to and including an invasion of the island.
US President Joe Biden had recently reiterated that his country would support Taiwan if China attacked. Although the USA has no diplomatic relations with Taipei, it has been supporting the country with weapons for defense for decades. Biden, however, left open whether the USA would also intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion. “It depends on the circumstances,” Biden said in an interview with the magazine TimeIn the event of a quarantine, the CSIS authors consider it unlikely that the USA would rush to the aid of the Taiwanese.
The CSIS authors also believe that China could achieve its goals with very limited actions. “If China were to search and seize just a handful of merchant vessels, it could have a major deterrent effect.” Many shipping companies may therefore refuse to continue calling at Taiwan.
“A quarantine is more feasible for China than an invasion or blockade”
“A quarantine is more feasible and likely for China than an invasion or blockade,” write the CSIS analysts. The Taiwanese coast guard has only ten large and 160 small vessels, while China has 150 large and 400 small coast guard boats. In addition, there are hundreds of other Chinese vessels, and the country has the largest marine of the world.
The quarantine scenario has been discussed in Taiwanese security circles for some time, says Sheu Jyh-Shyang, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei. “In my opinion, such a quarantine is theoretically feasible, but difficult to implement,” Sheu said to IPPEN.MEDIAChina would need a lot of patience if it wanted to monitor ships heading for Taiwan over a period of weeks or months. This is especially true as the Chinese coast guard would hardly treat ships flying the flag of other countries in the same way as those from Taiwan.
A long quarantine is also costly and the outcome is uncertain. The international community would also hardly let China get away with it. Taiwan has intensified unofficial relations with many Western countries in recent years, and the global economy is dependent on highly developed microchips, which are mainly produced on the island. “It is questionable how dangerous such a quarantine really is for Taiwan,” says analyst Sheu.
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