Shaaban Bilal (Cairo, Washington)
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s campaign spent nearly three times as much as Republican rival Donald Trump’s in August, according to financial disclosures filed yesterday.
Harris, who launched her campaign in July, disclosed $174 million in spending to the Federal Election Commission last month, while former Republican President Trump’s campaign separately reported $61 million in spending.
While the increased spending will help Harris’ campaign ramp up TV advertising throughout the election, it may not deliver victory.
The results of various opinion polls announced by media outlets, institutions and specialized bodies vary regarding the position of voters and the American street towards the presidential election candidates, which raises a question about the accuracy of the results of these polls and whether they reflect a real superiority of one of the candidates.
There is a big difference between national polls and polls specific to a particular region, says political scientist Irina Tsukerman. National polls often fluctuate depending on what the news is reporting, and rarely provide a complete analysis of voters’ concerns. Rather, they give a very general overview of the political landscape in the race. That’s why we see conflicting reports showing both candidates within the margin of error, meaning that the race is generally very close and could swing either way.
“Polls that break down preference ratings and other criteria by district are much more useful in understanding where candidates stand, because they look at what really matters, like likely voter turnout in swing districts or among very specific demographics in important areas,” Zuckerman told Al-Ittihad.
She pointed out that the candidates are not competing over the entire country, but rather over preference among “undecided” voters, independents, or voters who are likely to change their minds based on the candidates’ policy announcement, indicating that opinion polls do not reflect the reality of the American street.
The closer we get to the election, the more accurate the polls become, but changes in voter patterns must be taken into account, the political scientist added. Right now, in national polls, Trump and Harris are generally very close, and the real differences between them are in some areas. Harris has a clear lead in some swing areas, Zuckerman said, and going forward, every small development can have a big impact.
For his part, American political analyst Tot Belt considered that national opinion polls are almost meaningless in the United States because the Electoral College is used to elect the American president, and for this reason, opinion polls at the state level are much more important.
“The problem with state-level polls is that they have more sampling errors, so media companies try to average them together, but sometimes the samples are different, like registered voters, or likely voters, and they’re not the same thing,” Belt told Al-Ittihad. “In recent years, people have been less likely to talk to pollsters, and some of them are underrepresented groups, and that’s especially true for Trump supporters.”
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